Kutheni ukuwa namafutha? Ixabiso oli uyawa: oonobangela, iziphumo

Kutheni Oil owayo ixabiso? Le umba exhalabisa iingcali ezininzi, ukusukela iindleko zepetroli kwimarike yamazwe ngamazwe kuchaphazela uqoqosho kumazwe amaninzi, ingakumbi eRashiya. Ukususela ngoSeptemba 2014 ukuya kuMatshi 2015 kwakukho amafutha i esebenzayo ekuweni. Emva kokuba senze elifutshane, ixabiso waya ezantsi. Xa siqwalasela imeko ukusuka kwindawo umbono kwethiyori, imithombo yendalo ephathelele kudidi exhaustible, enyuke iminyaka ngeminyaka. Kodwa ngenxa yeemeko ezithile amaxabiso epetroli yawa phantsi kwempembelelo kwezopolitiko kwiimarike stock.

Imeko yangoku

Ukuze siqonde isizathu sokuba ukuwa ioli kunceda uvavanyo oluneenkcukacha ngemeko kwi emarikeni. NgoJuni 2014, akukho akukho zimpawu inkathazo, kwaye ixabiso Umphanda "igolide abamnyama" zafikelela uphawu $ 115. imbono Inkoliso babeqinisekile ukuba ekupheleni kuka-2014 ixabiso kuya kuvala kwi $ 110. Kwimeko enjalo, akuthandabuzeki ukuba nkqu abahlalutyi karhulumente, njengoko iindleko zepetroli kwi mali $ 100 yaqukwa kwi-mali ka-Russia.

Ngokwahlukileyo uqikelelo ukwenzela Kwiinyanga ezi-6 ezizayo, bonke abathathi-nxaxheba emakethe babe nethuba lokuba agcine nethontsi enkulu zamafutha. Iitshati bafikelela ubuncinane iminyaka emibini kwaye ukuba bafudukele ngokuzithemba nezibonisi ka-2008. Ubuncinane lifikelelwe ngoFebruwari kwi 47.09 zeerandi. Ngaphandle kokuba amazwe OPEC ngekratshi lowu va nga ukuncitshiswa uyoyika kula mafutha ukuya eerandi 10 umphanda, ngaphantsi kwenqanaba wathi emarikeni ukuba uye watsho phantsi. Ngoko ke, ukususela ngoFebruwari 2015, sele uqalile ukunyuka umva materials ekrwada. Namhlanje indleko ndiyindla yeoli ibe 63,69 zeerandi.

uqikelelo prognoziki

Nje ezimbalwa kwiinyanga ezidlulileyo ulawulo ithi ezininzi uthathe intloko yakhe, into engaqhelekanga mbuzo ngokuba kutheni ixabiso ioli uyawa. Le meko akazange athembise nantoni na elungileyo, ekubeni kuchaphulo olu singayeki liqengqiwe phantsi. Iingcali abayiqondayo le meko, njalo wanyanzelisa ukuba akukho monakalo eyenzekayo.

Ebusika 2015 kwakukho ukuthetha ngayo ekuqaleni kwehlobo le meko iza kuzinzisa. Ukuwa namafutha ngama-40% ngonyaka ngamnye awunakufaniswa kunye ukuwa yehlabathi ka-75% ngexesha lentlekele ngo-2008.

kwintlanganiso OPEC entwasahlobo ekuqaleni ukunika impendulo buso umbuzo wokuba kutheni amathontsi oyile. Yinto elula: isindululo sele babebiza imali imfuno. Nangona kukho inyaniso yokuba isimo ukuba itshintshwe de kwintlanganiso elandelayo States, apho abacwangciselwe uJuni 2015, i-nxaxheba kurhwebo lwehlabathi ukuba agcine uluhlu entle emva amaxabiso amafutha nge-20%. Sinokuthi uxinzelelo amafutha evela imibandela yezopolitiko zehla kancinane, kwaye sase- ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ndiyindla eerandi ukuya 65 ekupheleni kuka-2015, kunokuthiwa ngokoqobo.

Yintoni eyabangela ukuwa orhwebo lwe-oyile?

iingcali orhwebo lwe-oyile World, kuphononongwe umbuzo kutheni amathontsi oyile, bafika kwisigqibo sokuba isimo iphenjelelwa yimiba ezininzi. Ngenxa Ukwanda ngo-2014 iziganeko zehlabathi kwezopolitiko nezoqoqosho bonisa enye ndawo yokunciphisa kweekowuteshini eziyingxaki. Uyakwazi ukuthetha ekuqaleni shale gas revolution eMelika. Ukususela ngo-2008, imiqulu yemveliso amafutha karhulumente yonyuke imiphanda ngosuku 4 million. Kuthiwa ukuba igwele elincinane ngaphambi kwaba US waye umboleki likhulu "ngegolide black".

Ukutshintsha-nkqubo weli lizwe kuye kwakhokelela kungekuphela yokwanda umthamo amafutha ezivenkileni, kodwa unciphiso kakhulu imfuneko. Uyakwazi ukuthetha ukwayo EU akumiselweyo iRussia. Hayi indima lokugqibela ekubunjweni meko wadlala ukubuyela ioli yokurhweba Libya ne Iran.

Ukuwa ioli: emangazayo okanye umgaqo elungileyo?

Emva ebusika emva 2015 kwaba nzima ukuphikisa yokuba ixabiso ioli uyawa. Izizathu zale meko, iingcali ezifumaneka kwiinkalo ezininzi ezahlukeneyo kuphuhliso loluntu yehlabathi. Kakhulu ingcamango ethandwayo, njengoko apho ukuhla iikowuteshini - lilinge zokususa Saudi Arabia emarikeni United States. Eli lizwe, ekubeni inkokheli shishini, bakwazi ukuba negalelo elibonakalayo emarikeni. Kuba engafuni ukuba balahlekelwe abathengi zabo, wakhetha ukuba bakhokele, Saudi Arabia bazifinyeza amaxabiso ukuya kwinqanaba iindleko zemveliso izibaso eUnited States, apho sikhatshwe ukuvalwa eziliqela zeenkampani eUnited States. Ngokukodwa, Venezuela akazange ukuxhasa iqabane lakhe kwaye ungathanda ukuba ukwehla ekunciphiseni iindleko zemveliso.

Yintoni uhlalutyo lobuchule uphindo?

Ukuqwalasela i Dynamics shedyuli, umbuzo wokuba kutheni oyile uyawa, upstaged. Iingcali zinomdla kakhulu, nto leyo eya kuthunyelwa intshukumo engaphezulu.

Emva ebusika emva 2015, beyifuna swi kwinqanaba olomeleleyo inkxaso, emi kumgangatho zeerandi 36 (ixabiso ngo-2008). Yaba kuye kwacwangciswa ukuthenga ukusuka. Kulindeleke touch nje kuphela, kodwa uvavanyo ezilungileyo beze ixabiso 30 - $ 33, nto leyo ekhokelela yokothuka senzeka. Kodwa ke imeko iye yaba ngokwahlukileyo kancinci. Ixabiso ufikelele kwinqanaba $ 47, ngoko wajika waza wenyuka. Okwangoku, kukho amathuba okukhula. Iintelekelelo kakhulu HIV zibonisa ukuba ekupheleni kuka-2015, ixabiso ivaliwe kwi $ 85 umphanda nganye okanye ngaphezulu. Ndingathanda ukuba bathi arhente okuhlalutya enkulu kunye neBhanki yeHlabathi, nangona uptrend kwakhiwa, ukuba uhambo enye kuzo amafutha phantsi eve zokukhula ukuba amaxabiso eqikelelweyo.

Ifomati entsha market yemveliso

Ukuba kwiminyaka nje embalwa edlulileyo impendulo umbuzo wokuba kutheni oyile uyawa, waba ukunika indlela elula kakhulu, kodwa namhlanje nkqu imbonakalo elifutshane ayichananga kakhulu. Oku kubangelwa yinto yokuba impahla ngokwenene kuye kwaba "iphepha" asethi. An esebenzayo izivumelwano zorhwebo kunye amakamva. Product umthamo ifidi-5% kuphela. Kuthathelwa ingqalelo imeko elimiweyo kuqoqosho buthathaka yamazwe amaninzi kunye ne-Russia ingxaki, nto leyo umthengisi unamandla zepetroli, kunganxulunyaniswa ekuweni amaxabiso.

kuqoqosho resource-based le Russian Federation: indlela yobuntununtunu neenguqu kunamaxabiso entengiso yorhwebo yamazwe ngamazwe

Ukususela ngowe-1999, uqoqosho Russian eli asakhulayo. Ukususela ngo-2003, imeko yayo ntle unyanzelekile ukunyuka kwamaxabiso emhlabeni abathwali amandla. Kwiimeko ezintle wanceda ukuba uhlawule ityala angaphandle kwaye ukudala ingxowa-mali sinjalo. A Inani iingxaki zentlalo kude zisabonakala wahamba. Kwixesha elidlulileyo, uncedo kunye engxakini namhlanje - uxhomekeke ngqo kwizinto ekrwada kunye nokungakwazi makasizalise mali yezinye amacandelo ezoqoqosho.

Ngo-2014, uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali wasekwa ngenxa kwingeniso ephezulu evela kwintengiso amandla 1 ezigidi engange. Zishiywe ukuncitshiswa kanjalo ingeniso evela kweminye imithombo ukuya engange billion 300. Oku kucacisa inkxalabo urhulumente kubangela lo mbuzo: "Kutheni na ioli uyawa, dollar liphuma?".

Abaye bahlupheka ngenxa ukuhla elibukhali kwamaxabiso?

Ukucutheka ebukhali kwamaxabiso e-oyile kwimarike yehlabathi eye yabangela kuphazamiseka kwi uqoqosho yorhwebo-yohlobo ithi. Russia iye yaba ngumzekelo oqaqambileyo ifuthe ngqo imeko kwimarike yorhwebo kwi kuqoqosho. Xa amafutha ngokuzithemba baye baba bukhulu zabo, neengcali ezifunde umbuzo kutheni nemfuno ina ioli kweli lizwe liya kutolikwa lokufunwa ngemali zamazwe angaphandle, umbhodamo kwicandelo logcino kunye ukwehla okukhulu imigangatho yokuphila. Kufuneka athi malunga nengozi ephezulu ukwehla kule engange. Namhlanje, phezu uvakalelwa kwexabiso le oli ukubuyisela karhulumente nentembelo ngakumbi, Noko ke, de imodeli ekrwada yezoqoqosho aziyi kuthunyelwa umva, xa iziganeko kakuhle kwangethuba ukuze kuthi.