Ukungazinzi macroeconomic

uzinzo kwisikeyile - oko kunokuba yinto nje efane ngaphezu kolawulo. Practice ibonisa ukuba uqoqosho akukho imali eseleyo. Emva kwethuba elityebileyo nophuhliso oza ithuba yokudodobala, kunye ukungasebenzi. Ngaphezu koko, imijikelo ezoqoqosho kunye neentlobo ezahlukeneyo ngamathuba ixesha, kunye nezinye iimpawu. Ngoko ke, ngokutsho ixesha ukuba elifutshane, eliphakathi nelide.

imijikelo Mfutshane ezichongiweyo Dzhozef Kitchin, yezoqoqosho yaseBritani. Wahlanganisa nabo nokwenyuka koovimba ngegolide. Periodicity, Nokubekwa Kitchin, na iinyanga ezimashumi mane.

Wesley Mitchell, umseki oqosho, wayekholelwa ukuba imijikelo ezimfutshane sizathu ilele kwi ingeniso imali, yaye bavumelana ukuba zezantoni yangaphambili.

Enyanisweni, ezi imijikelo ezinxulumene yokunqongophala eseleyo kwimarike umthengi. Utshintsho kwicandelo credit ke unobangela kubo, ngoko ke kuvela ngohlobo yagcwala.

Kwisiqingatha sesibini senkulungwane ye-19, Klement Zhuglyar, indawo yezoqoqosho French, evavanya umlinganiselo mijikelo. ityala labo wabona, kakhulu, kwinkalo ye ngetyala. Klement Zhuglyar wachaza nezihlandlo imijikelo zamabanga esibhozo ukuya elishumi iminyaka.

Okufanayo uhlobo kwimijikelo ezi imijikelo kunye nokwakhiwa ibhalwe ngu Simon Kuznets. Wahlanganisa nabo a ngamaxesha athile (rhoqo emva kweminyaka elishumi elinesihlanu okanye amashumi amabini) uphuculo lwezindlu.

imijikelo Long (okanye elide) zikhona ngenxa yeenguqu iziseko, amandla kunye nobuchwepheshe engundoqo. Kungenjalo, lo mjikelo kwakhona ngokuba kumjikelo Kondratiev, ngokwemfundiso kwegama Russian - Nikolaya Kondrateva. Wafunda amandla amalahle imveliso, intsimbi, inkcenkce, kwakunye ne-avareji umgangatho umvuzo, amaxabiso, urhwebo lwangaphandle kunye neminye imiqondiso kwi-US kunye amanye amazwe aseYurophu Western iminyaka 140 (ukususela mashumi yokugqibela ezimbini kwinkulungwane ye-18 kunye nesiphelo iminyaka engamashumi kwinkulungwane yama-20). Kondratyev baqhube izifundo woqoqosho yaye wazimisela ukuba imijikelo ezininzi engu 54-55, ngexesha ugcina zinyuka zisihla isigaba.

Isigaba phantsi xa ukutshintsha technologies engundoqo kunye nezakhiwo zeteknoloji ithatha engama-20 ukuya kwengama-25.

Ukunyuka sigaba, xa uluntu kwenzeka uqoqosho achumayo, ubuchwepheshe kunye nenzululwazi, ithatha ukusuka kwiminyaka engama-25 ukuya kwengama-30.

Le lizama kuqoqosho angekhoyo ngenxa yezizathu ezininzi. Okokuqala, xenga kwi macro ubukhulu becala kuxhomekeke kwizinto ezifana nemveliso izixhobo zobugcisa. utshintsho rhoqo bawaphikise ixesha elifutshane yokudodobala kunye nokufunyanwa, kunye nalawo enziwe ngaphantsi rhoqo (umzekelo, ukwakhiwa iibhulorho amatsha kunye nezinye izakhiwo), ukwenza ezi maxesha elide.

Noko ke, Ukungazinzi kuqoqosho kubangwa nje kuphela kule inkalo. Kwi ingxaki periodicity of ukuhla kuqoqosho khange wahlala namnye xa ebona le zoqoqosho engamakhulu 19-20. Ukuzama ukuqonda oonobangela le meko, baye wadala eninzi iingcamango ezahlukeneyo. Ezona ziphambili zicacisiwe yi xenga kwezoqoqosho kule ndlela ilandelayo.

1. Ngokutsho ingcamango yokuqala, isiphumo isenzo eyenziwe namafutha nokungazinzi koqoqosho kunye wokuphindaphinda.

2. Abaxhasi thiyori kumjikelo woshishino lezopolitiko bakholelwa ukuba kuvela ukungazinzi kuqoqosho ngenxa kwabaqulunqi-nkqubo entsimini imali, uhlahlo lwabiwo-mali, mboleko kunye irhafu.

3. abavikeli thiyori yezizathu kumjikelo woshishino kuvuselele kubona oko ahluze kwezinto kwixesha elifutshane.

4. Izazinzulu zithi umjikelo ishishini lenene, zibonisa ukuba ukungazinzi kuqoqosho kwenzeka ngenxa yotshintsho ngesiquphe ezahlukeneyo amacandelo ezoqoqosho, oko kukuthi, xa utshintsha kabukhali ubugcisa bemveliso.

Nganye kwezi ngongoma iimbono ukusa kumkhamo othile ukubonisa ngokuchanekileyo izizathu kwamathandabuzo. Kodwa ingcamango ngokubanzi eyayiza ingqalelo zonke izikolo kwezoqoqosho, namhlanje ayikho.