Yintoni imeko kwishishini oyile Russian? Eyinene Amathemba

Oli uhlanga usaqhubeka, yaye apho ngalunye nxaxheba ngokuvisisana izilangazelelo zabo. Umzamo oneentloni ukuphumeza nezithintelo unikezelo engaguqukiyo, olwaqalwa Doha, akuphumelelanga, ikakhulu ngenxa kukulahlwa kwawo Saudi Arabia, nto, nto leyo eyenzeka kwimeko engenathemba. Ixabiso oil ngcembe liyanda, ngokwenjenjalo ngokuzalisa le mali ye-Russian Federation, sele ukulungele iingxaki ezinkulu ngokungqinelana lentelekelelo kakhulu angabathembi. Yintoni ukuba silindele elilandelayo? Namhlanje uziva ishishini lemigodi, nto leyo ibaluleke qhinga kuqoqosho wesizwe? Oku kugwetywa kuphela izigqibo leengcali abafanelekayo - zange abaninzi data ngenxa yezizathu ezicacileyo kuvezwe.

Isimo America

kushishino nge-oli US kwamaxabiso ephantsi ahlangabezana nobunzima kakhulu. Ukuhla kwamaxabiso ehlabathini kwakhokelela ekuncipheni inzuzo kunye neziphumo yonke imigaqo-Economics. abalobi american ngokwabo ukuba ipeyintwe ngokwabo kumgibe, ukudala neCAPS yintlekele. Xa iindleko $ 46 ndiyindla phantse ibe "kunqunyulwa" ukusuka sub-kwicandelo shale orhwebo lwe-oyile, iteknoloji luya engeluncedo lwanto, kunjalo, kodwa ukwangowona inzuzo ethile ukuze ekuvuseleleni wam kuthatha ixesha ngaphantsi kwe indlela yamandulo. kwimveliso ye-oyile kwi US ifikelele incopho irekhodi ngoJuni 2015, ngoko ke namhla izibilini aqokelelwa yezigidi 9.6. nemigqomo. Ngoku, eli nani yawa 8.8 yezigidi. Kwaye liqhubeka lincipha. Ishishini ahlangabezana nobunzima kakhulu ekuhlawuleni imali-mboleko kwenziwa ngokususela inzuzo eziphakamileyo, ecingisisiweyo namhlanje.

Imeko kwi OPEC

Yezemithi wokuhlanganisa kumazwe zoMbindi Mpuma oyile ekhobokisayo, ngexesha langoku nqanaba wabonisa ukusebenza kwalo. Ngamanye amazwi, yintoni na, ukuba ayikho - akukho mahluko. Umkhosi engundoqo lokuqhuba, ucwangcise kaloliwe, Saudi Arabia, njengokungathi ayisekho akukho OPEC, kodwa ibloko engundoqo isikhubekiso yaba indawo ye Iran ukuba lande imveliso. Kucacile, ilizwe, naterpevshis evela izohlwayo elide, ufuna ukuvala ingeniso ezilahlekileyo amashumi ezininzi, ukongeza, njengoko uphindo kutshanje nangakumbi mali kufuneka ibe negalelo kakhulu kwi emarikeni.

Saudi ukulahla kakhulu imisela lo mkhuba, abangaphangeliyo ukukhula kwamaxabiso, nto leyo kude wabe akakoneliseki kunye El-Riyadh, apho kuyimfuneko ayibambe yaba ubuncinane nekhulu, okanye lwabiwo ayikwazi lincitshiswe. Ukuthembisa wathi ukwandisa imveliso ngelixa nayo yaba negalelo elikhulu hayi. Tehran ngo April weza kwi mithwalo dosanktsionny. Phezu kwalo lonke, alondoloza ukungalingani obuxhasa isiphakamiso kwimarike yehlabathi, kodwa ngokuthe ngcembe angabekwa. Imfuno ekhulayo, yaye bafikelela ubukhulu iminyaka emihlanu, nayo ephantsi emarikeni ekhoyo eqhelekileyo, ngumthombo cheap ucumkile ngokukhawuleza ngaphandle kwendlela, kwaye izenzo mechanism ukuzeyisa, yaye ngokuthe ngcembe ixabiso kwandisa.

Russian "Greenfield"

Okwangoku, ngenxa imveliso oyile esebenzayo eUnited States OPEC Supply inyuke nge million 1.25. Imiphanda, kodwa ekupheleni kuka-2017 ukungalingani luthelekelelwa ukuba yehle ukuya kwizigidi 0,14. Nemigqomo. Kulo mba, indawo eRashiya umdla. Ngokutsho kweengcali VYGON Consulting, imveliso oyile yasekhaya ikhula ngokukhawuleza, yaye kunyaka olandelayo umthamo wayo uya kufikelela imiphanda million 565. Ngosuku, ongqamana irekhodi nakumaxesha yiSoviet ngo-1987. Ukudluliselwa, kulo nyaka, i-nani million 545 Eyona mithombo iphambili yonikezelo izinto baqalisa ukuzuza ebizwa ngokuba yi-eluhlaza (eluhlaza), oko kukuthi, amasimi omtsha .. Oku kungenxa iinzuzo zerhafu i ezinikwa ngurhulumente kwi isanda kwimveliso. Isabelo "namasimi aluhlaza" isinye kwisithathu lilonke. Kwimeko kuqulunqwa isivumelwano Doha, ezi iidiphozithi ababa nalo ukusebenza. Kanye ngoku kuqhutywa amaphulo amatsha elinesixhenxe, eyenza kube lula ukwandisa imveliso nge 16.5 yezigidi. Iitoni kulo nyaka umiyo kwaye ngo-17 ezigidi. Iitoni kwi elilandelayo.

Ekuncipheni yokucokisa

Isibakala sokuba imiqulu ezongezelelweyo oli ekrwada uzakurhwetywa ngaphandle, akukho mntu uthandabuzayo. Ngokutsho intloko VYGON Consulting G. Vygon, iSebe loPhuhliso lwezoQoqosho liqikelele ukuncitshiswa mhlawumbi yonikezelo emakethe zomhlaba nge-2.4% (ukuya kwizigidi 236. Iitoni) alilungile ngokokukhula imveliso kunye nokwehla ekhaya imveliso ng. Ukuthengiswa zepetroli of amabakala ahlukeneyo kunye amafutha emoto ayekwi wakhula eyi-15, kodwa wawa nge 2.3% ngo-2015. Ngoko ke, kukho isizathu esibangela ukuba ulindele ukuba ukwehlisa, kwaye ukukhula ezithunyelwa kwi-13 yezigidi. Iitoni kulo nyaka, ukususela kwinqanaba Ngenxa wemali ugcwalisa mali kakuhle. Isizathu soku Kucacile, ukuba baseRashiya baqalisa ukuqhuba ngaphantsi athenge imoto (apho, kakade, okubi). Ngokomzekelo, ngowe-2008 labemi iye yafumana oomatshini 3 million, ngaphezu eJamani kanye, njengoko kwakunjalo kwixesha elidlulileyo, 2015 m, 1.2 kuphela million. Ngako oko, amafutha kunye nabantu bathenga ngaphantsi.

Impembelelo imeko ixabiso zepetroli kweli lizwe

Kuba kwamanye amazwe luza kuba ioli kwemfuneko kuphela, kwaye le mveliso. Kulo kunye nonyaka ozayo namandla ezongezelelweyo ukulungiselela ukuveliswa zepetroli izakubekwa ukusebenza, yaye konke okuseleyo ilungiselelwe zonaniso lwangaphandle. umthamo wayo kufikelele elingana 9.1 mln. Iitoni, nto leyo iziphumo ezincumisayo, njengoko ixabiso iphezulu kakhulu kule meko kunokuba ekuthengisweni kwezinto ekrwada. Nangona kunjalo, ukuba kukho ukuhla kwixabiso othenge abaqhubi Russian, ngelishwa, akukho mfuneko, ukuba ilitha of 92-th ngo-2014 malini umlinganiselo engange-31. 40 kopecks, kanti kwikota yokuqala kulo nyaka -. 34 engange. 10 kopecks. Ukuze siqonde isizathu sokuba ukuziphatha okunjalo zepetroli kufuneka sijonge iimpawu amaxabiso wayo, leyo echaphazela kakhulu irhafu Excise (ngo-2015 kwathiwa lancipha), uphindo oyile kunye ukwehla (kwangolu 2015 it "longeze engange-6. Kopecks 80. Per ilitha ), kuba amafutha inye wathengiswa ngee okanye euro.

Ezinye izinto zinefuthe ezingemnandi

Intsalela phakathi ubonelelo kunye nemfuno ebegqwese kungqinelane ioli ehlabathini, nangona 'uhlaselo' Iranian kunye ukulahlwa Saudi. izinto nododobalisa supersaturation kwimarike kwelinye icala, ngelishwa, ngokufuthi zingambi kakhulu, kwaye zibuhlungu nokwenza. E Iraq, abanqolobi ukuvuthela ngezigodlo wamvelisela yombhobho ioli, ngoko into efanayo Colombia, Kuwait abalobi ugwayimbo e Canada, imililo ihlathi kwenzeka nje apho, apho kukho ayigange. Konke oku kuye kwanciphisa sipho.

Yintoni enye iphembelela eseleyo?

Nemfuno enyukileyo, ukukhula kwayo ifikelele kwi 1,4 mln. Imiphanda ngosuku, kunye ngumthamo opheleleyo zafikelela 95.9 yezigidi. Bbl., Yaye zonke kwikota yokuqala yalo nyaka. Abathengi engundoqo China, India naseRashiya. Loo ukusetyenziswa ophezulu engalindelekanga ukuba imarike. Kwangaxeshanye, Saudi Arabia elingayizalisanga ingozi yayo, umthamo yayo imihla ngemihla Abakhi-10, 2 million. Nemigqomo. aziphatha Njengoko kakuhle nakwabanye OPEC, ngaphandle Iran, kakade. Abayiqondi kutheni e Doha ukuze waphefumla. Kodwa ngenxa ibalulekileyo ukuhla kwixabiso - oku ukuhla kwemveliso kumazwe apho iindleko zemveliso ziphezulu, ngokutsho IEA yangaphambili, baza kukwazi ukunikezela imiphanda kuphela 800 amawaka .. ngosuku.

amathuba

ISebe of Energy lapapasha ingxelo ngoMeyi 12, njengoko apho ixabiso ioli de 2040 akhule ukuya eerandi 252 umphanda. Noko ke, ukuba ezinye meko, ngokuxhomekeke kwiimeko ezahlukeneyo, ebizwa amanani $ 76 (Outlook negative) okanye $ 141 (avareji-eziyinyani). Noko ke, yintoni eza kwenzeka nekota yenkulungwane, kunzima ukuba ngumgwebi, kwakunye ngento eza kuba yi ngexesha amandla yokuthenga yokwenene US lwemali. Njengoko kuba zexesha elifutshane (iminyaka emibini), kukho isizathu sokuba nethemba ngexabiso 70-75 zeerandi kunye namathuba elisezantsi ukuphumeza uphawu yayo 100 Ibhere Russian ezo amaxabiso, kodwa kontanga yayo ezingavumelaniyo bonke baya kusinda.