Yimalini iindleko oyile ngo-2008? Dynamics yamaxabiso, iindidi zamaxabiso, ukuyilwa yeendleko

Ixabiso a Umphanda ioli grade isiphawuli inempembelelo ebalulekileyo uqoqosho ithi eziphambili kwaye ingasetyenziswa njengesixhobo yezopolitiko. Ukuwa amaxabiso kuba nefuthe elibi kuqoqosho yiSoviet Union, ukudlala indima ebonakalayo ntlekele wezopolitiko yaqhambuka 80s kade, ningandiqumbisi ngokuwa USSR. Ukuhla nokunyuka kwexabiso ifuthe kwicebo kwi mali karhulumente of Russia mihla, uqoqosho ngokubanzi kunye nexabiso enye into ebaluleke ezithunyelwa Russian - igesi yendalo.

Iindleko oyile idla xa kuthelekiswa no-2008, xa ngenxa kwintlekele yoqoqosho lwehlabathi, kwabakho ukuwa kwamaxabiso. Kwangaxeshanye oko kwabhalwa kunye nexabiso ubuninzi zembali. Yimalini iindleko oyile ngo-2008? Inqanaba elincinane ixabiso resource ekufikelelwe ngosuku emva kweKrismesi, ngoxa ngexabiso eliphakamileyo yabhalwa kwiinyanga ezimbalwa ngaphambili - yesine ka July.

kwamaxabiso e-oli - sisalathisi iziganeko ezininzi kwezopolitiko kunye nefuthe noqoqosho kubukho bukaThixo. Kodwa ngaphambi kokuba bekhuphele ukuhla nokunyuka kwamaxabiso resource, kufuneka asebenze kunye iintlobo ixabiso, indleko, umyalelo lokusekwa ixabiso lokugqibela.

Iintlobo amaxabiso yeoli: ibakala isiphawuli lwecebo

Ukuze lula inkqubo yorhwebo kuqhelekile ukuba usebenzise reference ezininzi (ummakishi okanye umgangatho) kumabakala ioli. Iindleko iintlobo ezininzi zoncedo abaxhomekeke ngqo okanye ngokungathanga ngqo kwi ixabiso lemarike kwakheka kwi ngeklasi esisezantsi zokubhala zilandelayo:

• Dubai / Oman (Oman ekrwada kwakunye ngo-2007) - zithengiswa ikakhulu kwiimarike Asia.
• Brent ekrwada Oil - geni kwi emideni Norway Scotland, wenziwa iintlobo zempahla ekrwada. iintlobo Model lolusezantsi igolide yokuqingqa iindleko zamafutha eYurophu kunye namazwe OPEC. Ngokutsho iingcaphulo yeoli, ixabiso Brent amiliswe phezu Urals brand yasekhaya.
• West Texas esiPhakathi (eyaziwa yi le ungayiqondiyo WTI) - oyile Texas, iindleko oluthi luqokelelane ngalo mzuzu of delivery ukuya resource yokugcina e Oklahoma, USA.

Imiqulu kula mabakala yemveliso neoli encinane ratio kuthelekiswa, nangona kunjalo, amisele ixabiso uninzi kubonelelo iimveliso.

Ixabiso ixabiso resource nganye iyunithi umthamo

Amaxabiso e-oli ithathele ingqalelo Dynamics ixabiso lokugqibela lwemvelaphi, yona sum of umda kwaye iindleko - iindleko zizonke lemali ezenziwe yinkampani ngexesha kwimveliso ye-oyile. Iindleko ubunjwe macandelo alandelayo:

• iindleko zemveliso, irhafu kunye nokunye mandatory (intlawulo isusela ukusuka iirandi ezintlanu ukuya kwelishumi umphanda nganye).
• Iindleko ukuhlola kunye nophuhliso kwamabala oyile (ngokuxhomekeke mmandla, iindleko zingaqala lwedola ezisixhenxe ukuya amane).
• iindleko Shipping (hayi njalo imbangela kuthathelwa ingqalelo, kodwa ke kuphela kangangoko kuyimfuneko).
• Kuba amasimi offshore ezenza malunga amashumi amathathu ekhulwini lilonke lemveliso oli ehlabathini ungafuna umsebenzi ukurhoxiswa kwiqonga oyile.

Iindleko zokuvelisa oyile uthelekelelwa mabini anesithoba iidola avareji ngamnye ifatyi on. Yimalini iindleko oyile ngo-2008? Nge ukuwa ubuncinane ixabiso resource kweenkampani yeoli efunyenweyo dollar enye ifatyi ezine kuphela, ngoxa ngexabiso incopho ukuba bafikelela ukuzuza ezilikhulu zeerandi okanye ngaphezulu.

Formation yentengo lokugqibela oli

Amaxabiso lokugqibela oli (itheyibhile okanye igrafu sothelekiso, njengoko umthetho, kwaye libonisa ixabiso lokugqibela) kuphenjelelwa zizinto ezininzi. Olubalo uthatha imeko yangoku yezopolitiko kunye nezoqoqosho, kodwa onefuthe esisiseko yeendleko 80-85%, lulwahlulo yonikezelo kunye nemfuno. Esi sigqibo kumsebenzi yenzululwazi othi "Uphando kwiimpawu ezininzi ukubunjwa amaxabiso oyile ...» noEri eyenziwe kwi-Russian Academy of Sciences.

Ngoko ke, makhe sikhangele ukuba yintoni amaxabiso e-oli phezu minyaka. Kwishedyuli iya kubonisa imeko. Idatha anikwa ukuqala ukusuka kwisiqingatha sesibini kwinkulungwane yeshumi elinesithoba kude kube ngo-2011. Kwi itshati, ngasendleleni, bubonakala ngokucacileyo ixabiso le oli ngo-2008 - ukuwa lula avelele.

Umgca blue ibonisa ixabiso le resource kwi United States dollar, igophe-orenji imele umgangatho kwamaxabiso e zeerandi ngo-2015. Data phambi 1945 zinxulumene iindleko zamafutha eUnited States de 1885 amelwe uhlobo Inkolo ukuKhanya, yaye emva - umgangatho langoku, Grade resource Brent.

Ukukhula kwexabiso resource ekuqaleni 2000

Dynamics yamaxabiso, esicacisa iingcali ngamazwe, ukuqalela 2000, xa amaxabiso oli lenyuka ngenxa imfazwe e-Iraq, izinga lokukhula kwizinto kwemfuneko, ukunciphisa imveliso yi Indonesia, i-UK kunye Mexico, kwakunye zokuncipha kula mazwe Gulf. Ukungazinzi kuMbindi Mpuma kuye kwakhokelela ekubeni kubekho ukunyuka kwexabiso le oli kwi zeerandi ezilishumi ngosuku, Juni 6, 2008. NgoJulayi 4 iindleko Product sele ifikelele phantse 144 zeerandi umphanda (143.95) nganye.

Le ntlekele jikelele kunye ukuwa ngo-2008

Yimalini iindleko oyile ngo-2008? Ixabiso le-resource ngoDisemba 26, 2008 ifikelele phantse ezimashumi mathathu anane zeerandi umphanda nganye. Amaxabiso aphantsi oli ngo-2008 yathatha ixesha elifutshane: sele ngehlobo lowe-2009, ixabiso waqala ukukhula kwakhona.

Ukuzinziswa amaxabiso emva kwentlekele

Emva angalulama yeengxaki zemali ehlabathini jikelele (ngo-2010) umgangatho amaxabiso oyile ngcono. Ixabiso ndiyindla ngelo xesha malunga asixhenxe ukuya asibhozo eerandi. Growth kuqaliswe ngenxa yobunzima kwezopolitiko Libya kunye umlilo wokucokisa eUnited States, ngoko ke ixabiso waqalisa kuwa ngenxa yeengxaki kwi-European Union.

Kokuwa orhwebo lwe-oyile ngenxa neCAPS zempahla ekrwada

Ngo-2014, ixabiso Brent libe ngaphantsi alithoba eerandi umphanda. imfuno amafutha yawa, yaye ngelo xesha kwakukho unikezelo kwemfuneko. Ngu ekuqaleni kuka January 2015 amaxabiso oli siwile kakhulu. Inqanaba Ubuncinane zeedola 45.13 nganye inani umphanda ufikelele weshumi January. Yimalini iindleko ioli m-2008 no-2015? Oku izalathi kakhulu ufana. Kwaye ke izinto eziye zakhokelela ukuba zehlise amaxabiso, ezifana - kwaye enyanisweni, yaye kwelinye icala, waba nempembelelo isigqibo imeko yezoqoqosho ehlabathini lonke.

Uzinzo kunye enye idrophu kwi ixabiso

Kwisithuba senyanga emva kokuwa ngo-2015, ixabiso ioli yazinza, kodwa hayi ixesha elide. Quotes zehla ngehlobo lowe-2016 ngenxa yokuba ukuwa kwimpahla of China kunye Iran i-isaziso izicwangciso emarikeni ukwandisa ezithunyelwa ioli emva okukunyusa kwezohlwayo. Zilamkele iindaba ukuba eUnited States kwixa elizayo ziza ndimmisele amandla amatsha emveliso.