Nini le ntlekele ku Russia: uqikelelo

Imeko eRashiya iqulathe hayi ngendlela engcono. Nangona senze, kunye neendawo nokuphucula imeko, abahlalutyi kunye neengcali zoqoqosho awanqandi ukuphika kubuya ezayo elandelayo lobunzima. Oosomashishini kunye nabantu abaqhelekileyo abahlala Ithemba yokuphucula le meko kwaye ithuba xa ubunzima uphela eRashiya. Ngokutsho uMphathiswa woPhuhliso lwezoQoqosho Alekseya Ulyukaeva, le meko iza kuzinzisa ngo-2016. Uthi endaweni jonga elide ziya kuza ukukhula elide-elindelwe kwezoqoqosho. Ngelishwa, le mbono kwabelwana ngabo kukha zonke iingcali eziphambili.

Noko enxulumene kuzinziswa eRashiya ngowe-2016?

Ulyukayev sasemini kunye nezinye iingcali eziliqela ngendlela yokuphucula imeko kweli lizwe ngo-2016, inobudlelwane ngqo kunye orhwebo lwe-oyile kumazwe ngamazwe. Ngokutsho koqikelelo lokuqala, ekupheleni kuka-2015, i-engange kufuneka ngokupheleleyo ukomeleza indawo yayo phakathi ukunyuka lwehlabathi kwamaxabiso e-oli. Ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kufuneka incitshiswe ukuba ixabiso 2-2.5%. Ukuqina kulindeleke ngokunxulumene ukwanda ecwangcisiweyo ngesifo kunye notyalo-mali incentives. Okwangoku, ngokutsho kuMphathiswa, urhulumente Russian kuthatha amanyathelo afanelekileyo ukuze bezimali angaphandle kwiiprojekthi ezinkulu apha kushishino ngomatshini. Yona ke eshotayo mali ngo-2015, wabhengeza inani ingqamana 2.3 yezigidi zezigidi zezigidi engange ngokwenkcazo. Enyanisweni, yonke into ibukeka ezahlukeneyo, ukuze, enyanisweni, ubeka nokucingela nethemba enjalo lahlaselwa.

"Le ntlekele eRashiya iphela" - le ngxelo ziyazalana kwinto yokuba lwabiwo-2015 kunye nesicwangciso-mali lokuqala kule minyaka mithathu izayo wayelele phantsi ixabiso ioli kwi $ 90 umphanda. Namhlanje, amaxabiso epetroli ngenkankulu ukuba ufikelele kwinqanaba zeerandi 55. Ukungabikho kwemali Kucacile, ngoko, kwaye intsilelo mali seminyaka emithathu ezayo aya kunyuka, ukwenza malovozmozhnym ekhawulezayo soyise le ntlekele.

iimbono okuhle kwi imeko

Nini ingxaki eRashiya, umnotho waqala ukuba ukunyuka. Njalo kuye, kuba le ngxaki sithi sibe nazo, ngelishwa, asinto ingaqhelekanga. Ngcono ngayo phantse onke amashishini, abemi baphakamisa umgangatho wobomi babo. Kodwa kusekwangoko kakhulu namhlanje. Iintelekelelo abanethemba, kubalulekile ukukhumbula abo bathi akunakwenzeka ukuba ukuphepha zimbi ngendlela inkqubo yoqoqosho isinqumo enamandla. Le ntlekele - idabi ngokukhawuleza kuphuhliso lwakuqala. Bona ziyindlela ukusombulula iingxabano. Kuli ena ilizwe, i esebenzayo kokukhona kuya kuqhubeka nampumelelo.

Lo mfanekiso ne-2008

Ngowe-2015, izinto zihamba ayifani kwakunjalo 1998. Emva kokuwa ngokukhawuleza engange ngezinto amazwe 1998 ziye ubesoloko ethatha indawo imveliso imveliso yasekhaya. Oku yavusa kuphela uphuhliso lwangaphakathi karhulumente. imveliso yasekhaya Industrial uye phambili ukwenzela ukuba ntlokoma imekobume evumayo waba ukusebenza ngo-2000. Namhlanje, nangona kukuwa engange, imboni yasekhaya kunye nemveliso ke ayivulwanga. Kwaye bagcine ngokupheleleyo imeko esahlukileyo, endaweni uyaziphakamisa. Urhulumente ayithathanga nawaphi na amanyathelo afanelekileyo ukuze kupheliswe iimeko kubonisa ngokuzenzekelayo oko ukulindela ixesha lotshintsho kwixa elizayo, ukuphela kwentlekele eRashiya nobudoda iqala, angafanele ngayo.

Russia namhlanje. Yintoni ukuba ulindele?

Ukhangela kwi Russia namhlanje, omnye unokujonga ngokucacileyo amacandelo okuvelelayo crisis:

• Ukucutheka ebukhali kwimveliso mveliso.
• ukwehla kwe engange.
• Intlekele neebhanki.

Kulo kulandela oko kukuthi, baya kwintlekele yoqoqosho eRashiya, ngayo xa kwangoko kakhulu. Akukho mntu unika isiqinisekiso sokuba iingxaki musa yandele kwamanye amacandelo. Abantu abaninzi inxibelelanisa kukwehla kwezoqoqosho kuphela izinto zangaphandle, nangona enyanisweni, imveliso yezoshishino wayesaqhubeka yokulahla amandla ngo-2012. Oko ngeli thuba, i-Ofisi yoMphathiswa woPhuhliso lwezoQoqosho kuquka iinketho ezintathu kuphuhliso iziganeko phambili de-2030. Ngowe-2015, omnye bagcine ukuphunyezwa emibi kunayo ukhetho. Ukuphuculwa Russian Federation akukho lwenzekile, injini kuphela uphuhliso uphuhliso kunye nokuthengiswa lwamandla, ukuhla ngcembe GDP, kufutshane ukuya uxinzelelo. An into umdla kukuba iimeko urhulumente uza kwaziwa ngo-2013, xa, ngaphandle kwentengiso, wathabatha lobeko ezimbi yesithathu yophuhliso loqoqosho lwesizwe.

Ngawaphi amanyathelo urhulumente nendlela kunceda kwi ingxaki?

Zimbalwa ingcali kuthathwa ukuphendula ngqo xa kwentlekele eRashiya. Ngakumbi kuba imiqathango ukuze imbonakalo yayo kukho sele kakhulu ixesha elide. Ngoko ke, urhulumente uye 2013 waqalisa ukuba afakele-mvume beebhanki kunye namaziko ngetyala. Isigqibo ekupheleni kuka-2014, emva kokuba ukusasazwa inkcazelo ngaye, kwakhokelela elibukhali outflow of capital. Abantu ngenkuthalo waqala ukurhoxisa iidipozithi zabo, ukuba maxongo imeko kuphela kwaye kwakhokelela ekubeni imilinganiselo lwamaziko ezininzi zemali.

Le ntlekele kunye nezohlwayo

Emva 2014 izohlwayo iimeko inkunzi. A kontrsanktsii yi-Russian Federation kwaye ukuwa kwamaxabiso ioli kwimarike yehlabathi le nto ize phantse ngokupheleleyo iinzame ukubuyisela uqoqosho lweli lizwe. Ngokwahlukeneyo, ungenza uthini izohlwayo eziye zakhokelela amaxabiso aphezulu kweemveliso. Business iye akakwazi ukusebenza ngaphandle imida, kuye kwabangela ukunyuka kwamaxabiso ukuba akukho kwesiqalekiso ngokuba ngummi umndilili lizwe inqanaba. imfuno Ukunciphisa kwakhokelela ukuvalwa kwamashishini. Tandem iimeko zangaphandle nangaphakathi kuye kwakhokelela ekuthotyweni msebenzi ishishini kunye nokuncipha ezifunwayo onke amacandelo. Njani kwaye nini uya kwentlekele eRashiya kusekwangoko kakhulu ukuxela, kuba ekuPhulukenwe nalo siya kuqala nge ukuphakamisa izinga lokuphila kwabantu.

Ukuba izazi bathi?

Angawaconganga umba ngokwemixholo ntlekele nabavumisi ngeenkwenkwezi ezaziwayo-kakuhle. Pavel Globa wayebongoza abantu ukuba woyike emiselweyo ngo-2015. Nangona uqikelelo ezingentle, nabakhwitsi swi yokuba euro akayi kuba engange ngaphezulu kwe-100, kunye nokuphelisa elipheleleyo le meko iya kuqhubeka kuphela ngo-2017. Ezinye labavumisi awuphendule lo mbuzo xa kwentlekele eRashiya. Uninzi uqikelelo lubonisa ukuba zihambe kakuhle ukuba urhulumente kunye ezimbi Melika kunye Ukraine, kwakunye nokuba kuzoba enyanisweni, akukho bani owaziyo.

Ezikhokelele kwintlekele?

Ukuze athi ukuba ingxaki phezu eRashiya, kusekwangoko kakhulu. Ukuze oku kwenzeke, kufuneka ukuba baphumeze Ukungabikho nobangela wezi ngxaki. Oku kuya kuba linyathelo lokuqala ukuya kurhulumente ntle. Abaninzi baxhomekeke ugunyaziso Melika naseYurophu, nangona oku yaye akazange abe lawula kwiimeko. Yena nje wabeka nefuthe elibi ngobume imarike kwezoqoqosho. Ukunciphisa mali non-umhlali kwicandelo leemveliso mandundu ukhuphiswano imveliso yasekhaya kwimarike yamazwe ngamazwe. Le ekungeneni of capital akuthethi kwakhona de lizwe lehla. Zalisa ukuxhomekeka zorhwebo zokurhweba ndiyihlungule uqoqosho ngenxa ukuwa kwamaxabiso oli ehlabathini, ukubuyiselwa apho kwinqanaba edlulileyo kude akukho bungqina. Kokuwa engange bukhulu zayo zembali kunye nokuphakamisa okunxuseneyo kwenzala CBR kukhokelele kwiingxaki abakhoyo. Uqhube kukudla kwasemlilweni ungquzulwano phakathi eRashiya naseUkraine. Akukho nanye kwezi zinto zibangela le ngxaki ngeli nqanaba uphuhliso Russia alunakupheliswa ngokupheleleyo, enika izizathu ezinzulu ukugweba ixesha elide phambi kokuphela ntlekele.

Kwenzeka ntoni emva koko?

Development okanye ukwehla kwezoqoqosho lobunzima eRashiya ixhomekeke kwi izohlwayo ezitsha, nto leyo enokukhokelela ilahleko ukulawula ishishini labo capital amazwe. akunakuphepheka usambathisa karhulumente. Isiphumo iziganeko kuyoba obonakalayo ekupheleni kukaMatshi 2015, yaye de imeko engatshintshiyo, kunye noosomashishini kufuneka sijonge iindlela ezintsha zophuhliso. Akuyi kulindeleke ukuba ukutshintsha imeko kwimarike oli ehlabathini. Ngenxa ixabiso yee-asethi amafutha kwi $ 55, enokulindelwa utshintsho ezintle. Ukungabikho epheleleyo yenkxaso karhulumente ishishini lidlala indima engcono kakhulu. Xa sithelekisa imeko-2008, lo ukufana inokubonwa kuphela conjuncture kwamaxabiso orhwebo lwe-oyile. Kuzo zonke ezinye iinkalo kukho umahluko, ingakumbi kwiindawo abafumana ukuhla izindlu, zebhanki kunye ingxenye nemveliso. Nangona izohlwayo ziyanyuswa, kwaye kokoma orhwebo lwe-oyile, kusekwangoko kakhulu ukuxela xa ingxaki phezu eRashiya. Intelekelelo nge namona ezintle athi malunga nophuhliso entsimini-IT, uthungelwano kunye namayeza afanelekileyo. Njengoko ipesenti encinane abahlala ezi iinxalenye kuqoqosho, ukuphuculwa lwehlabathi de kube yokugqibela kude.

Sase- kakhulu silahle

Phakathi inani elikhulu uqikelelo yaye ukuba uza kuphoxwa yophuhliso iziganeko kweli lizwe. Kukho amathuba ukuba ekupheleni kuka-2015, uninzi amaziko mali karhulumente, kuquka uyila nkqubo yezemali, nje hamba yimali. Oku kuya kwenzeka ngenxa ekukhuleni idola ukuya kwinqanaba engange-80. Ixabiso oli kusithwa $ 40 umphanda. utshintsho zemali GDP zafikelela-10% kwi ebomvu. I-Central Bank iya kunyanzeleka ukuba ukukhulisa inzala ukusuka kwi-17% ukuya 37%. Ngenxa yoko, ihlabathi liya ukwala kuboleka eRashiya, nto leyo enokubangela ukuwa iyonke imeko yokusetyenziswa kwemali. Le meko kude ukuvumela ukuba ucinge xa ntlekele iya kuphela eRashiya. Predictions, nkqu ezininzi ezilungileyo, musa ukutshintsha nto.

Kulo nyaka uphelileyo, iRashiya iye igcinwe ukukhula GDP kwi 0.5%. Inani-4% ngo-2015 ngokwenene, kodwa xa uthelekisa kunye ikamva leoli idrophu, uqikelelo silahle ibingayi lingakhangeleka goose enjalo.

Konke kuxhomekeke urhulumente

Kule meko lwangoku, kuphela urhulumente Russian uyakwazi ukubona xa ukuphelisa ingxaki eRashiya. Uqikelelo zifana, kuba ukungabikho kozinzo le meko ixhomekeke zobunkokeli lizwe. Umzekelo, ukuba Central Bank kuyihlisa benchmark umyinge wenzala, oko kukuthi nje ngqiqweni, oko kuya kubangela ukwenyuka kakhulu. Kulo mzekelo, imarike yesikweliti, aya kuhlala asinde. Ukuhla kwi GDP uya kukwazi ukugcina ngaphakathi kwimida ye-4%. izisombululo zolawulo ofanelekileyo uza kukwazi ukuba akhokele ilizwe ngaphandle ntlekele kuphela xa ixabiso le oli ivuke eerandi 60. Phakathi kwiminyaka 2-3 kuya kuba lula ukulungisa isimo, ukuba utyalo-mali kuqoqosho lwasekhaya ayikho ngaphantsi kwe-3 ezigidi engange. i zasekhaya ziya kuthatha eli nyathelo urhulumente, akukho namnye unako ukuthetha.

Xa ingxaki phezu: Russia-nkqubo anti-crisis

Iingcali nabavumayo-nkqubo anti-nengxaki ngokuxhaphaka karhulumente. Umzekelo, isixa-mali sokubuyisela uqoqosho zabelwe zibhanki uboleka ushishino, nto leyo, ngokutsho uRhulumente, kufuneka iseke imveliso yasekhaya yempahla. Xa sinikela ingqalelo kuphela kukuba ngaphantsi kwe-30% mboleko ukuze nabani akufuneki, kwaye iindleko zokuvelisa iya kuhlala engafunwanga kule rate. Banks, eqonda intsalela, imali echithwa utshintshiselwano lwemali engenayo, nto leyo kwandisa izinga lokukhula kuphela kwaye mandundu imeko. indima Fatal eyadlalwa ioli uxhomekeko kuqoqosho ongavelisi nokuba siqwalasele ixesha xa lobunzima uphela eRashiya. Imarike ihlabathi liya kutshintsha, nto leyo eza kuchaphazela imeko loqoqosho lwesizwe. Ukuba ezisindayo bunzima, le nto emva kwexesha elithile ngokuqinisekileyo uya kuvuselela ukuvela wave entsha iingxaki.