Kokuwa engange (ngo-2014). Isizathu sokuba kukuwa engange

Uqoqosho Russian wayezeyisile enye ngeenxa nobunzima, omnye - i buthathaka lwemali kazwelonke ngokuchasene dollar. Yintoni unobangela kukuwa engange? Yintoni na - yinkolelo systemic okanye ukusebenza lentelekelelo? Zintoni iziphumo abemi abaqhelekileyo kunye namashishini?

Sase- ophambene

Ngokutsho kwezinye abahlalutyi, ixabiso le US dollar ngokuthi ekupheleni kuka-2014 ukuze akhule ukuya 37-40 engange (okanye iya kuba izinga lotshintshiselwano US dollar avareji). Esona sizathu siphambili sokuba buthathaka yase Russian ebizwa ukuvuthuluka loqoqosho lwesizwe. Le Iingcali, ngubani na abaxhasi a ALS ophambene hlobo, nabo bakholelwa ukuba iimfuno sele ephantsi GDP uya kuwa ngakumbi, kunye ezinkulu - kumpompoza bemke kwelo zwe.

Indawo engange, abahlalutyi pessimists bakholelwa uya buthathaka kuphela ngokuchasene dollar, kodwa kwezinye iimali ezinkulu ehlabathini. Kukho kwakhona imbono yokuba ngoku kukho ixesha nozinzo engange ukwehla kwezoqoqosho Russian, ngenxa kukwehla yohlengahlengiso lwentlawulo. Zisiba imeko lwemali Russian, abahlalutyi bathi, kunokuba negalelo-nkqubo we-Federal Reserve System of the USA, nto leyo 2014 aqhubeke ukunciphisa amanyathelo emali impembelelo yoqoqosho, kwaye ngo-2015 ukuze aqale ekuphakamiseni izinga ekufuneni imali.

Ngokutsho kubathengisi

Iingcali entsimini kwintengiselwano angaphandle kucingwa ukuba indawo engange ngokuchasene dollar ayikho ngaphezu koko ezinye iimali. uxinzelelo zemarike, ngokutsho abarhwebi, iye yavavanywa, kwaye idola Australian, le peso Argentina kunye lwemali Turkish yesizwe - le lira. Bonke bephela, njengoko imali engange - ekuthiwa-mali "impahla yorhwebo". Ekupheleni kuka-2014 i-dollar, ngokutsho iingcali zorhwebo, oko kuxabisa imali engange 34-35, kowethu - malunga 45-46 iiyunithi ze emali Russian. Kwakulo mnyaka, Noko ke, kusenokubakho nokunyuka.

Esona sizathu siphambili kukuwa engange, bakholelwa abarhwebi - kule nokuphuma investment yokuqhelanisa lwehlabathi - lokuphuma eyinkunzi evela kwiimarike ezivelayo, lalo eRashiya, zaza zafakwa uqoqosho kumazwe. Oku kunokuba efanelekileyo kule minyaka izayo. Noko ke, ukuba buthathaka lwemali yesizwe Russian Federation, njengoko iingcali zemali anikholwa, va ngamandla abemi: amathuba eliphezulu lokukhula kwamaxabiso abathengi.

Uluvo yokusingqongileyo yenzululwazi

Ezinye iingcali kwinani zoqoqosho bakholelwa ukuba uphelelo engange luthe elide umlinganiswa ngo-2014. Ngenxa yesi sigqibo ye-Central Bank ukunciphisa ulawulo exchange market angaphandle ukuze siqwalaselwe. Noko ke, xa izinga lotshintshiselwano omeleza, yibhanki eyongameleyo inokuba kwakhona buthathaka ulawulo-bid. kakhulu kule nkqubo yesizwe yemali, njengoko iingcali zikholelwa, kuxhomekeke ukutolikwa ngendlela eyiyo kunye nokuqonda nokukhula koqoqosho. Umzekelo, ukuthetha malunga nokukhula koqoqosho benene umzekelo kumazwe aphuhlileyo, ngokutsho izazinzulu, akukho zizathu, ngenxa yokuba kukho abasebenzi zibiza imali eninzi kakhulu.

ukukhula ezingezizo ngokusebenzisa beqokelela mali equity - ke, ngokutsho kwezinye iingcali, "kwiqamza" ukuba uya kuqhwithela ekugqibeleni. Noko ke, ukuba iRussia, njengoko izazinzulu zikholelwa, ukukhula koqoqosho kube yinto ebonakalayo, kwaye buthathaka lwemali - into yokwenene isivuseleli yayo. Xa kokuwa engange anda kumazwe angaphandle, ngoxa kuphuma abatyali-ngeniso (kodwa ungakwazi kuthoba ukuthembeka imarike).

Le meko baphila

Nangona ubuninzi meko ezimbi malunga engange ngokuchasene dollar kunye nefuthe layo kuqoqosho Russian, kukho phakathi ngezoqoqosho kakhulu nethemba le meko. Kukho kwinguqulo ngo-2014 ezinye ntlekele, uphawu kwiminyaka edlulileyo, kukuphelisa euro, nto leyo noongqo yorhwebo Russia. Uqoqosho lwamazwe apho lwemali esemthethweni - euro, ngo-2014 ukuba akhule ngaphezu kwe-1%.

Oku kungakhokelela ekukhuleni kwempahla ethunyelwa ngaphandle Russian zempahla ekrwada, kwakunye nokwanda ixabiso yona. Ukuba oko kuyenzeka, oko kuya kukhula, kwaye intsalelo yorhwebo ye-Russian Federation, yaye emva kokuba bazakucotha nencindi capital amazwe. Umphumo iya kuxhaswa njengoko engange nxamnye dollar. Ngokutsho mzekelo nethemba enjalo, ukukhula GDP eRashiya ekupheleni kuka-2014 ngaphezu kwe-2.5%, ngelixa izinga lonaniselwano dollar ayisayi kudlula engange-33. Ngoko ke, enikwe uqikelelo, ingabe ukwehla le engange ngaphakathi 2014 nini.

emva

Phakathi ngezoqoqosho kukho luvo uphelelo engange ngokunxulumene ekhokela iimali ehlabathini - isenzeko yinto entsha kwaye zendalo ngokupheleleyo kuqoqosho Russian. Nokuba akukho siyithathela ingqalelo ingxaki ka-1998 , xa ibhanki yesizwe note dollar Russian wawa izihlandlo eziliqela, ngokwaneleyo ukuba ukukhumbula ukudodobala koqoqosho ngo-2008-2009. Ke lwemali Russian unenzondelelo ubuncinane ukwehla onamandla ngaphezu ngo-2014. Noko ke, njengoko iziganeko ezilandelayo abonisa, le engange kwiminyaka embalwa elandelayo, ngokuzithemba yayidlala indawo dollar kanye euro.

Kwakhona khumbula norhwebo lwemali ukuwa-2012 - xa zifundo ebonakala hexa aphezulu kakhulu, iingcali ezininzi kwangaphambili le engange ukuwa benzeke, kodwa oku akuzange kwenzeke. Namhlanje, imali Russian iwile ixabiso, kodwa isekelwe phezu namava eminyaka edlulileyo, kwaye akanako ukunika ithuba lokwenza izigqibo kovavanyo, banokuyamkela olunye uphuhliso loqoqosho lwesizwe. Ngo-2008-2009, uqoqosho waba izizathu ezithile ukuwa le engange. th 2014 ukuze ndiyibonakalalise neminye imiba echaphazela imali Russian.

Imizila kumazwe asaphuhlayo

Kukho imbono phakathi ngezoqoqosho ukuba imali engange oziphatha ngorhwebo lwemali ngeenxa efanayo engamaphepha kunye namanye amazwe asakhulayo, ingakumbi BRICS amazwe (oko kuthatyathwe Brazil, India, eRashiya, China kunye noMzantsi Afrika, ngamanye amaxesha). Into yokuba ngoku kukho sisixa mali kwihlabathi abatyali abasuka kwezi kuqoqosho. Buthathaka imali zesizwe, njengoko kukho isizathu esilungileyo ukuwa - le engange, i-real, yuan okanye irandi Ayenzi mahluko - yinto eqhelekileyo ukuba amazwe qela. Russia, ngaleyo ndlela alahlekelwe nomtsalane for capital angaphandle.

Yayikukuphuphuma lotyalo ukwadityaniswe yokuba i-US Federal Reserve ngcembe liqiniswe umgaqo wolawulo-mali, ukunciphisa kunikezelo dollar angakhuselekanga kunye nokunyusa amazinga enzala yasekhaya mboleko. Ukulandela umzekelo anoqoqosho aphambili ehlabathini 'ngokuqinisa iibhanti zawo' kunye namanye amazwe aphuhlileyo. Abatyali Ubona oku, kuxhotyiswa ngokuzithemba okukhulu kwezi marike kwaye ukhetha ukuthumela ikomkhulu labo apho, kunokuba kumazwe asakhasayo. Zezoqoqosho baphawula ukuba lwemali BRICS ayenziwanga kakhulu buthathaka njengoko dollar bya ngenxa ekuphuculeni iimeko US emarikeni.

ezibangela lwangaphakathi buthathaka le engange

Ukuwa engange njengokuba ezinye iingcali zikholelwa, kubangelwa ukuba iimeko zangaphandle nangaphakathi. Okokuqala, ngenxa esebenzayo Review Central Bank of Russia mvume evela yeebhanki - ngo-2013 le nkqubo lwaqhutywa kumaziko zemali yebhanki-20. Kufaniswe kakhulu resonant - ukuvalwa "Nkosi-Bank", enye enkulu elizweni. Okwesibini, i-Bank of Russia wagqiba ukuba kancane le engange kwi "ezidadayo free".

Isizathu soku - umnqweno ukukhuthaza uphuhliso woshishino lizwe, nto leyo lula ukugcina inzuzo zokuthumela. "Babuthathaka 'imali engange ezinokunciphisa kakhulu ixabiso kwempahla Russian uze wenze imveliso yasekhaya nokhuphiswano ngakumbi. Ezinye Osoqoqosho bakholelwa ukuba ukwehla kwamandla emali yesizwe abasemagunyeni Russian Federation unokumnceda: mboleko ezithathwe kwiibhondi zikarhulumente e engange, kwaye ingeniso oyile libalwa zeedola US. Ngenxa ukukhula dollar kukarhulumente uya kwamkela ngaphezu kwi lwemali kazwelonke ukuba uhlawule inzala izitropu.

Iziphumo buthathaka engange

Yintoni esongela uphelelo engange? Ngaphandle kwento yokuba buthathaka lwemali - oku, kuqala kwiinto zonke, izalathisi yoqoqosho olukhulu, enokuphathwa imiphumo yale meko kunye abemi abaqhelekileyo. Ngokutsho kwezinye iingcali, ukuwa lwemali kazwelonke ka-Russia ingakhokelela amaxabiso aphezulu yempahla amazwe (ngokukodwa elektroniki, iimoto, amayeza, impahla, kwakunye neemveliso, izinto ukuba imveliso leyo zithengwa amazwe).

Ixabiso ngeenyawo kule ziqwempu lokuba ngabahlahleli Kuqikelelwa, akwazi ukufikelela-15%. Ukongeza, le holide ziindleko ezinkulu kakhulu baseRashiya amazwe (ingakumbi kumazwe aphuhlileyo). Amaxabiso amatikiti moya kunye neehotele ichazwa kakhulu wase US, kunye nexabiso lazo lesiqhelo, nangona nokunyuka kwemali, kuhlala ingatshintshanga, nto leyo ethetha ukuba kanye kanye ixabiso iindleko zohambo ukusuka kwinguqulelo ukunyuka emali Russian. Abemi Kanjalo ukuba xa ebona lo mkhuba ukuwa Ruble. Yintoni uya buthathaka ngakumbi yase yesizwe Russian Federation, noosozoqoqosho uchaze kakhulu lucidly.

Fed factor

Njengoko sele kutshiwo ngentla apha, kukho ingcamango yokuba imali engange ngokuchasene dollar ixhomekeke ngqo kwi-nkqubo we-Federal Reserve System. Ngoku eli ziko zemali kunciphisa inkqubo ebizwa ngokuba of "lula" xa umatshini wokushicilela iidola angakhuselekanga ezikhutshiweyo. Fed kunciphisa kuthengwa bonds kunye nezivumelwano zokubambisa. Ubunkokheli entsha ye-Federal Reserve System uthembisa nebonelela ukusebenza ngale program. Thina eli ziko zemali utshintsho abathile kubudlelwane kunye nabasemagunyeni. Ukuba kwiminyaka edlulileyo Fed kwafuneka ukweyisela Congress of imfuneko yokwandisa nophahla ityala likarhulumente, kodwa ngoku ayenzi mqondo - IPalamente American unelungelo izilungiso kwisilingi nangawuphi na umzuzu. Oku, abezoqoqosho ukukholwa, inceda ukunciphisa iingozi ze-US kuqoqosho evela Federal Reserve System. Ngoko ke, lo market US indenzele ithuba elihle gulwa kwaye, ngenxa yoko, esomeleza dollar ngorhwebo lwemali yamazwe ngamazwe.

Nobubi ukuba buthathaka engange

Kokuwa engange - into leyo alusoloko lusebenza kuqoqosho kakubi. Kukho lo mkhuba ezilungileyo nezingalunganga. Phakathi iingenelo zingenakuphikwa - ukunyuka kwengeniso kwiinkampani ngaphandle kwaye, ngenxa yoko, ukukhula kweentlawulo yerhafu mali ka-Russia. Kwavusa endaweni yokungenisa - ixabiso konyuso impahla kumazwe angaphandle, kwaye lube nenzuzo nto ukuba bathenge iimveliso kwemveliso yasekhaya. Inegalelo ekukhuleni koqoqosho. Ngenxa yoko, ukuze siqonde into esongela idrophu engange, kubalulekile ukukhumbula ukuba amatyala yelizwe langaphandle. Le yimali ukuba abahlali bathabatha phesheya - ngokuqhelekileyo in eerandi. Ngoko ke, lo indlala enkulu kulo buthathaka imali Russian - ukunyuka umthwalo kubaboleki ezinjalo. Ityala yangaphandle Russia ngoku amakhulu ezigidi zeerandi (ngokuvumelana izibalo kwezinye iingcali, ukuba sele idlulile oovimba amazwe kweli lizwe). kuncipha elide ebonakalayo le engange uba anisizakali kuko iinkampani (kwaye ingakumbi kwiibhanki zorhwebo) ekufuneka amatyala angaphandle.

uqikelelo yeebhanki

Iibhanki inkulu Russian angaphandle nazo zenza ukuba ukuhlola kukuwa engange kunye ukuqashisela nemiba elizayo lwemali yesizwe Russian Federation. Kufuneka kuqatshelwe ukuba amaziko zeentengo zemboleko ibekwe sinethemba ngokubanzi. Banks ezifana "VTB Capital", Morgan Stanley, kwakunye "Alfa-Bank", kulindeleke ukuba ekupheleni kuka-2014 i-dollar liya kuxabisa 35 engange. Citi, "ukuFumaneka kweFidi", "Uralsib" ukubona engange omeleze kakhulu: kwiimpapasho kula maziko sekubonakala phakathi 32.3 no 34,5 lamacandelo kwemali Russian note bank US ngamnye ukuya ekupheleni konyaka. Eziliqela kubonakala zemo ophambene le engange ngu HSBC (35,4 dollar ngalinye), "Renaissance" (35.5). Ukwenziwa buthathaka kakhulu imali Russian ubona iUBS (36,5). Kufuneka kuqatshelwe ukuba phakathi projections ngokumalunga kweenxweme engange ithelekiswa neemali zamanye amazwe ezinkulu emhlabeni - euro - kananjalo wabona umahluko obonakalayo - ukususela 43,4 (Morgan Stanley) kwiiyunithi 48,4 RF nganye engamaphepha Euro (Citi).