Xa ixabiso le-oyile baya kuvuka wezulu

Ngo-1990, icandelo Russian iye cishe wabatshabalalisa, kwaye mthombo wengeniso mali yelizwe yaba ioli. Oku Iingcali meko kudala obizwa ngokuba "inaliti ioli", exhomekeke nokuthengiswa iziveliso ekrwada kusenza sibe sengozini. Kwiminyaka yakutshanje, siye kuhle ngayo. Iingxaki kwezoqoqosho kunye kwezopolitiko ihlabathi kwakhokelela ekwehleni kwamaxabiso e-oyile, kwaye ngamnye kuthi uyazibuza: xa ixabiso le-oyile uza kuvuka?

Njani imakethi

Okokuqala, makhe uphendule lo mbuzo: Yintoni egqibayo amaxabiso amafutha? Iindleko zaso nasiphi na imveliso ixhomekeke unikezelo kunye nemfuno. Ukuba imveliso kufuneka ngezixa ezincinane yenziwe amakhulu, ixabiso layo nakanjani kuwa - umele ukuba ngandlel 'ukulahla impahla. Ioli lisetyenziswa imveliso, ngoko imfuno kuxhomekeke kwi nemeko ngokubanzi kuqoqosho lwehlabathi. Kwiminyaka yakutshanje kuye kubekho nje yokumisa, kwaye ukuhla komgangatho shishino, kufuna mafutha anganeno, yaye ezinezinto ayawa nje kuphela - lakhula ngenxa nkqubo Saudi Arabia i-. Supply udlula imfuno, ngoko ke ixabiso iwile. Ibiya kuthetha ukuba impendulo umbuzo xa nokonyuka kwamaxabiso e-oli, kulula kakhulu: xa imveliso uya kukhula. Kodwa kukho nezinye izinto.

umdlalo kulelona

Iindleko hydrocarbon ixhomekeke kwi-nkqubo. Yinto akukho mfihlakalo ukuba West isoloko ikhangela kunye mababone izibonelelo elikhulu eRashiya, yaye umsebenzi ixesha elide buthathaka eli lizwe ukuze kube lula ukuba kunqumle iqhekeza payi. Babizwa ngokuba "yenaliti ioli" Yiyo le indawo ebuthathaka Russian, ngoko ke West ligqibe ekubeni ukubetha kwi kwimarike hydrocarbon le. akazange ioli imenyu njani? Ngaphambili, inani imveliso yawo kunye namaxabiso eyayisakulawulwa yi ngumbutho okhethekileyo - OPEC. Noko ke, embalwa kwiminyaka eyadlulayo, le nkqubo "eyaphukileyo." Saudi Arabia nase-United States landa imiqulu yabo imveliso, imfuno ukhule. I elula injongo - ukufaka emarikeni encediswa zokulahla. Ehlabathini xesha, iingxaki waqala kuqoqosho China kunye Ukraine, nto leyo ikhokelele ekwehleni kwemfuno. Ke kaloku impendulo yombuzo xa ixabiso le-oyile baya kuvuka, kwandiswa:

1. Xa amazwe OPEC, bengavumelani, esazi ukuba ukuwa kwamaxabiso ezinto uye shaya wonke.
2. Xa uqoqosho lwehlabathi aya kuya kwandisa (kukho ithemba ngakumbi China).

stock adonsa

Ngomhla amaxabiso oli zichaphazela kulindelekileyo. Kwathi Zonke izinto ekrwada ngokutshintshiselana stock kunye, njengoko iingcali zikholelwa ukuba amaxabiso ke luluvo kakhulu. Ukuba ngebhaqo kudlula rumor Saudi Arabia liya kwenza isigqibo ukunciphisa imveliso, kwaye xa abadlali market bakholelwa kuyo, baya kuqalisa ukuthenga up izixa ezikhulu neoli ithemba amaxabiso aphezulu. Ngenxa kule imfuno wadala ngezandla ngokwenene iindleko iqalisa ukukhula. Kodwa ukuba abadlali ziya kuba qiniseka ukuba meko ayizi ngcono, ukuba ungathanda ukuba ungaziswa kwaye ukuthatha imingcipheko nokunciphisa ukuthenga izinto ekrwada. Njengoko ubona, abaninzi kakhulu "Akwaba" ukuthi oyile uza kuvuka ixabiso, apho ixabiso uqikelelo kufuneka ithathele ingqalelo inani elikhulu zinto.

yokuvela kwezinto ezintsha

Science, kakhulu, andazi ukuba ixabiso le-oyile baya kuvuka. Izazinzulu musa nokuba afikelele kwisivumelwano malunga oovimba yayo emhlabeni! Nakuba kunjalo, kuza iindaba malunga nophuhliso lwamandla engenye ngakumbi: umoya esisetyenziswa ngokubanzi kunye ilanga, kuphuhliswa iinkqubo ukuvelisa ipetroli evela ioli, kunye nombane - ukusuka ukubola inkunkuma. Nangona inqanaba lophuhliso ubuchwepheshe esezantsi, baye bakwazi ukunika hayi ngaphezulu kwe-20-30% iimfuno zamandla yehlabathi, kodwa izifundo zenzululwazi musa ukuma. Xa oosonzululwazi uya kwenza idabi, yaye nokuba oko kuya kwenza nzima kuthi.

Asimele silibale malunga namandla enyukliya. Ngo-2010, oko salahlekelwa eyomeleleyo, kodwa kumazwe elikhulu ekwakheni izityalo amandla enyukliya ukuba akwazi ukunika amandla amaninzi cheap rhoqo. Le nkqubo ayikho esebenzayo kakhulu, ngenxa yokuba amandla enyukliya kuyingozi kakhulu, kodwa ke umsebenzi ukufumana izigqibo ubuncinane eyingozi yenziwa rhoqo.

Yintoni lokulindela ukusuka abongameli

Ungafumana iindidi izimvo zeengcali, kodwa ngokwenyani akukho namnye unako ukuthi ngqo xa ixabiso le-oyile baya kuvuka. Abaninzi baye babonisa ukuba ngowama-2016, ixabiso layo uya kuvuka ku 100, okanye ukuya ku $ 150, kodwa kwaba ngokwahlukileyo. kwezopolitiko World namhlanje nje engalindelekanga. A umzekelo olula: xa ukwayo nxamnye neRashiya, ezo iingcali efanayo bathi uqoqosho eli lizwe siza kutshatyalaliswa ziye zaziswa. Kodwa izinto zabahambela ngokwahlukileyo: Europe bahlupheka kakhulu ngakumbi, njengoko umgangatho urhweba bawa. Kuba Russia, izohlwayo ziye zaba negalelo kuphuhliso loqoqosho. Namhlanje sibona utshintsho ukwazi kule nkqubo amazwe kunye domestic kumazwe amaninzi. Kwi-US naseYurophu enyanisweni kukho umzabalazo phakathi amazinga ezimbini: ngentsebenziswano ne-Russia, kunye ngxabano naye. Isiphumo lo mzabalazo kuya kubonakala xa ixabiso le-oyile baya kuvuka.

Ingxaki ongunaphakade yakuMbindi Mpuma

Xa iindaba ezinxulumene, ngamajelo federal ngoku onge kukuva ngale meko e Iran, nto leyo kakhulu engaqhelekanga, ngenxa yokuba uqoqosho lwayo nayo kuxhomekeke xa ixabiso le-oyile baya kuvuka. Ekubeni eli lizwe liye kutshanje aphakamisa ukukwaywa, oko kukuthi, ngoku nga agalele ioli phezu emarikeni. Kakade ke, ukumimitheka ishishini kuzakuthatha ixesha elithile, plus akucaci into isikhundla uya Iran. Kwelinye icala - kubhaliwe ngokucotha kodwa ngokuqinisekileyo ukuphucula imeko-Aram. Yinto eyaziwayo ukuba abagrogrisi bethatha ekurhwebeni izinto, phantsi kakhulu ngexabiso, njengoko lo msebenzi mthethweni. Ngaphandle kokuba Iran liya kwenza isigqibo ukuxhasa umbutho Russian zavala LIH itshatyalaliswa, kunokuthiwa ukuba ixesha xa ixabiso le-oyile ivuke $ 80, ngeenxa nje ikona.

Policy Russia

Kufuneka kuqatshelwe ukuba iinzame ezininzi Western ukuba buthathaka eRashiya isiqaqa ngenxa yokuziphatha nokubhala loRhulumente Russian. Ngokwezi amaxabiso eziphathekayo ekrwada kuwa, siye bafumana iimarike ezintsha, ukuba neentlobano zokwazana amazwe East, abanye ngcono kakhulu, nangona hayi amazwe zibalulekileyo aseYurophu. Coalition lamazwe aseAsia, eziquka eRashiya, kancane kancane wamqinisa, mhlawumbi kwixesha elizayo kuya kuba nako ukuxhathisa West. Kumbindi-nkqubo welizwe lethu litshintsha kakhulu, kodwa bancinane. Kukho ukukhula kakhulu kwezolimo, umsebenzi uyaqhubeka ukuxhasa entrepreneurship, kodwa utyalo ebalulekileyo kushishino enzima nokusulungekiswa oyile, nto leyo ndiniphelise isixa esikhulu sezixhobo zokufunda ekrwada akukho ulandelwe. Noko ke, phezu lonke, uqoqosho Russian uba uzinze, nto leyo eya kukhokelela ukuba ekwandeni kwamaxabiso ezizizembiwa, ngoko ke ubuncinane ukunciphisa ukuxhomekeka kwabo.

Zama ukuqikelela

Yintoni ekufuneka uyenze ukuze amaxabiso oyile ukwanda? Ewe, qhubeka nje ikhondo wabeka namhlanje. Mhlawumbi sinokuthi xa amazwe Western musa abathile izigqibo ezingalindelekanga self-entshabalalo, iindleko zamafutha iya kuqhubeka bekhula, nangona kumazinga aphezulu. Lithethe ityala ngokwakho:

1. uqoqosho Saudi Arabia kukaThixo enokuchatshazelwa kakhulu amaxabiso inkunkuma.
2. Iran neSiriya, kusenokwenzeka ukuba sibe kwicala Russia, njengoko West ngaphambili wabakhokelela ukwehla.
3. amazwe aseYurophu bafuna iindlela zokoyisa ingxaki kwaye ukwakha uqoqosho.
4. China ebesoloko idume "imimangaliso zoqoqosho" yayo, plus uye isuswe miqobo ngokuzalwa kwabantwana. Kokuba kulindeleke ukuba ukukhula labemi, ukuba ukuvusa uqoqosho lizwe, ngoko ke ubuncinane musa niyinike angawa asezantsi.
5. Nezokukhupha oyile shale bekusoloko inkampani ethandabuzekayo eMelika, kwaye sibona namhlanje, njengoko inqanaba yayo.
6. amazwe Asia ndiqalile intsebenziswano esebenzayo nokukhangela iindlela yeentlawulo ngaphandle ukusetyenziswa dollar.
7. Uqoqosho Russian lifumanise yokuqhelanisa kwakhona, nangona athalala, ishishini ukukhanya kunye nezolimo.
8. amandla Alternative nakuba bengakwazi ukuhlangabezana ngokupheleleyo neemfuno kushishino kwihlabathi.

Kanti ke, mhlawumbi, kodwa kufuneka sicinge ukuba benze ntoni na oyile wenyuka, nendlela balahle i "yenaliti ioli". Enoba yangaphambili, kunye namaxabiso zempahla ekrwada, uxhomekeko loo nto iya kwenza uqoqosho lwethu incipha ukutshabalala, ngoko ke into ephambili namhlanje - neoli, yaye zikhulise ngamandla nangokubanzi shishino kunye nezolimo.