Kuza kwenzeka ntoni oyile ku: uqikelelo

Umbuzo ngoko kuya kwenzeka umdla oyile ipesenti enkulu yabemi behlabathi. Ukwanda umdla ukuyilwa amaxabiso "igolide black" iza kuchaza impembelelo yabo kuphela kuqoqosho yamazwe amaninzi, kodwa kwakhona kuqoqosho lwehlabathi liphela.

amaxabiso 2014

Kwisiqingatha sesibini sonyaka wama-2014 ixabiso raw materials kwinqanaba $ 110, nto leyo ngokugqibeleleyo ezilungele kungekuphela eRashiya kodwa amanye amazwe ekuthumeleni amafutha. Russia mali kwakhona ngenxa umsebenzi ngamandla zenkampani inkulu ioli ekhobokisayo, ingakumbi, ezifana "Gazprom". Oil Ndavuka ixabiso de phakathi-ihlobo 2014 kwaye ifikelele incopho yayo kwi-115 zeerandi. Imeko efanayo yayikhona USA, amazwe OPEC kwaye kwamanye amazwe aseYurophu. Ngencam ihlobo 2014 ukuya ekupheleni kukaDisemba, ihlabathi wabukela ukuwa-ngesantya esiphezulu kwamaxabiso e-oyile, apho yayokufika kwizinga lomyinge we $ 60. Ekupheleni lasebusika oko kwabhalwa bukhulu-nyaka emininzi kwi $ 48. Ngelo xesha, iingcali nkqu hlabathi, kuthi ngokuqinisekileyo inxalenye ngoko kuya kwenzeka ioli kwixa elizayo, ekubeni bonke uqikelelo olwenziwa ngaphambili, kwaba phantse embi ngokupheleleyo.

Imiba ezivuselela-drop-oli, kunye nempembelelo yawo ngoku

Izama ukwenza uqikelelo kwixesha elizayo, iingcali ezininzi bakucaphukele ukusuka izinto, ngokokubona kwabo, ziye zakhokelela amaxabiso eziwayo. Unga uthethe ngale ngongoma zilandelayo:

• Ukunciphisa izinga lokukhula koqoqosho lwehlabathi. I-EU kunye China ziye etyetyisiweyo kuphuhliso, Japan ukho recession. Industry ithi ifuna amafutha encinane, nto leyo ekhokelela ukuncipha okukhulu kwemfuno. A isixa esikhulu zepetroli kunye ukungabi namdla kuye ukukhuthaza bawe kwamaxabiso. Iingcali kwangaphambili ukuphucuka okungephi imeko ekupheleni kuka-2015.
• OPEC, ukususela ngoSeptemba 2014, ukwanda kakhulu umthamo amafutha eveliswa ukuya kwinqanaba million 30.5 nemigqomo. Saudi Arabia baziswa ngokomthetho ukuba ufuna ukuba ukunciphisa quotas of "igolide black", nokuba ixabiso layo phezu kwiimalike zehlabathi ziya kuba-20 kuphela eerandi.
• Ukukhula kwemveliso ye-oli eUnited States ukuya kwinqanaba kwezigidi 8.9 nemigqomo.
• ukhuphiswano Okuninzi liye laba isisekelo sokuba isaphulelo ukuthenga amafutha. Xa umzabalazo enzima odla ngo-2015, yokulahlekelwa ixabiso ekuvunyelwene kumazwe afana Qatar ne Iran, Saudi Arabia.
• imfuno ngokubanzi hydrocarbon lincitshiswe ngenxa kuphuhliso eYurophu ubugcisa ezonga umbane. Lo mkhuba kwi eminyaka ezayo akayi kutshintsha.

Xa siqwalasela zonke izinto kunye, ngoko bathi ekupheleni kuka-2015 Isimo kwimarike ihlabathi akayi kuba sibuyele endleleni oyile. Iingcali ezininzi bacebisa ukwandisa iindleko zepetroli ukuya kwinqanaba $ 75. Emarikeni we-5 Meyi 2015 ukuba fixed ixabiso kwi $ 70.

Ixabiso oli ngo-2015, kuthathelwa ingqalelo izigqibo loorhulumente

Iingcali ezininzi, ukuzama ukwenza uqikelelo ngento eza kwenzeka oyile kulo nyaka, angaphumelela kuphela ngezigqibo oorhulumente bamazwe-nxaxheba zemakethi oli ehlabathini. mali Saudi zabuya kuthathelwa ingqalelo into yokuba kwiindleko Umphanda yeoli akuyi kuwa ngaphantsi ngo-2014. Ngenxa yesi sizathu, iingcali ezininzi ukubheja ukuba sibaso yonke 2015 ziya ukodlula kwi $ 99. Emva kokuwa lemakethi mali yelizwe iye yahlaziywa ngokupheleleyo. Isibonda senziwe kwi $ 60 umphanda zeoli. Field of upapasho olusemthethweni mali yaqala ukubonakala iingqikelelo ukuba 2015th amaxabiso epetroli akuyi kudlula kwinqanaba lamaxabiso of $ 65. Oku ukuzenza Saudi Arabia ngenxa yokuba urhulumente wayeyinkokeli imboni ekuthiwa OPEC.

Oko kwakuthethwa kwingqungquthela yamazwe ngamazwe ngo-April 2015?

Ngo-Epreli, 2015 ngomhla kummandla eTexas kwaba nengqungquthela yomhlaba, apho imiba ngazo ngenkuthalo enxulumene namafutha. Kwintetho yakhe, intloko "Lukoil" inkampani wavakalisa igama malunga yokuba amaxabiso amafutha akusayi kwazozonke phantsi. Usomashishini Vagit Alekperov wachaza into kokufikelela uqhekeza amanani bukhulu imbali, nto leyo ibonisa ngqo sokuqhubeka esingalindekanga lo mkhuba. Ngokutsho Goldman Sachs Umhlalutyi Jeff Currie, kwisiqingatha sokuqala amaxabiso 2015 wehla ngenxa kokupapashwa kuqikellelo ezimbi ngekota yesithathu ka-2015. Ezona zinto zifuneka kuqala phenomenon ke zithi Ukunyuka kakhulu kwi US dollar. UJeff igxininisa ukuba le meko iye yazinza kancinane. Ngokoluvo bavuma ngokupheleleyo uJuha Kahenyan, wakhonza usekela mlawuli we kwisahlulo zeIMF e-Asia kunye noMbindi Mpuma. Zombini iingcali batyekele ukwenyuka kwamaxabiso, nto leyo kwangaphambili kunye IMF. Khumbula ukuba ekupheleni kuka-Agasti iingcali-2014 swi amaxabiso amafutha ekupheleni kuka-2015 sama- $ 99.

Icala lesibini ingqekembe

Ukuqwalasela lo mbuzo oko kuya kwenzeka ngeoli kwixesha elizayo, akavumelani kunye uluvo Kahenyana kunye Kerry, kwaye ayingqinelani i-IMF uqikelelo Aydar Kozybaev, ummeli we-National Bank of Kazakhstan. Uthi ioli ihlabathi liya kuba nako ukuhlala kwi US $ 99 kwixa elizayo, koko, akunamsebenzi nokuba ukufikelela kulo mgangatho nto. Economist ithembele $ 85 umphanda of Brent oli ekrwada nganye no-75 zeerandi umphanda nganye ekrwada oyile WITI. nokucingela zabo lweengcali olunxamnye elinamandla kwi imeko eRashiya, amazwe afana Azerbaijan kunye Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan naseTurkmenistan, apho ungenisa States. Ingalingani leoli kuye kwakhokelela ekubeni ukuwa amaxabiso kunye thombo ukuzinzisa le meko eziliqela kwisimo ukubuyiselwa kwinqanaba amanani. Kwixesha elizayo, isiqhelo iya kuqhubeka, nangona ngo-2014, ubuninzi (105 - 110 zeerandi umphanda) abangayi kuba nako ukufikelela.

Uninzi uqikelelo kukothuka ngo-2014: imarike ngokuchasene kwibhajethi karhulumente

Nokuba ngo-2014, i-ALS ibuhlungu into ingqalelo zophengululo zehlabathi kuphela nje ezimbalwa, kuquka eRashiya, kukuba, ngokungqinelana ne apho iingcaphulo yeoli iya kunyothulwa ukuya kwinqanaba $ 60. Ubukhulu becala, iingcali uyavumelana ixabiso "zegolide abamnyama" ngo-2015 kwi $ 90. Ngaphantsi Imeko uxinezeleko kuthatha unciphiso yeoli Urals ukuya eerandi 91 ngo-2015 kwaye $ 90 sika-2016 - 2017. Wavele, oku kukhokelela ekuncipheni kwe-GDP ngowama-2015 ukuya kwinqanaba 0.6% ne recovery ukuya kwinqanaba 1.7 - 2.8% sele ngo-2016 - 2017. Ngaphaya koko, njengoko imeko zenzeka enyanisweni (ngaphantsi $ 49 ndiyindla ngoJanuwari), ihlabathi liphela amlinda. Imalike oyile uphila ngendlela engalindelekanga.

Apho ungajonga khona inyaniso?

Zonke uqikelelo ngoku nako ukunika abahlalutyi iyahluka ngokubanzi, ukusuka okuhle kakhulu uxinezeleko. amazwe OPEC, ezo abangenanjongo ukunciphisa quotas amafutha, ucinga meko kunye ukuwa kwamaxabiso ku $ 20, njengoko ibango ukuba kule meko akayi kutshintsha amaqhinga zabo. IMF siqinisekile ngekamva kwaye ukholelwa ukuba ekupheleni kuka-2015, uphindo oyile ukuziyolisa amaxabiso asukela kwi-90 - 99 zeerandi. Uninzi lwabathathi market esweni nje imeko kwaye uphephe izigqibo ezibalulekileyo. Sinokuthi inyaniso ilele kwindawo ethile phakathi, njengoko kuboniswa kule meko kwi kwimarike namhlanje. Nangona imveliso oyile ngamazwe kwi-3 edlulileyo - iinyanga 4 asiguqukanga, iindleko zamafutha ebulungelelanisile ngaphandle kancinane. Ngoko ke, njengokuba yoo-Juni 2015, Brent kuba kumgangatho kufutshane eerandi 65 umphanda, nangona ukuvavanya umgangatho $ 70 umphanda.

Iinkcukacha-manani ngeenyanga ngo-2015

Ngoko ke, kuphi ukuya orhwebo lwe-oyile ngakumbi? Ngokufundisisa izinto ezisisiseko, iingcali ezininzi ithi enye efanayo. Oil ezithunyelwa kumazwe amaninzi iya kuhlala injalo de kuye ekupheleni kuka-2015, nto leyo enika isizathu elungileyo ukuthetha malunga kwezi zithethe zixabisekileyo zilandelayo:

• Ekuqaleni June, ixabiso yeoli avareji $ 66 ekupheleni kwenyanga kuya kuyeka kwirekhodi-69 zeerandi. Kulindeleke ukuba lungene $ 76 kunye ubuncinane $ 60. Kuba Kwiiveki ezimbini zokuqala kukaJuni ezifana iincopho nabangekafumani yimpumelelo.
• NgoJulayi liqikelele elihle kakhulu. Iza kuqala kwi $ 69 yaye ziya kuqukunjelwa ngexabiso $ 72. Le kwelona qondo iya kuba kumanqanaba zeedola 77 no-61 zeerandi. I-avareji ixabiso - $ 71.
• Ukususela ngoSeptemba ukuya kuDisemba uhla amanani, nangona imveliso oyile ngamazwe ukuze lisasazwe ngenxa kuphuhliso iidiphozithi kwezibonelelo kwi-Russian Arctic kunye neeprojekthi ukuvuselelwa kwi-US, iyakuba ukusuka iidola 55 ukuya 77 eerandi.

Yintoni elindele imarike lehlabathi 2016 - iminyaka 2017?

Kunokuba imeko isitali ehlabathini akuthinteli abahlalutyi ezinkulu jikelele, kuquka abameli inkampani "Gazprom", ioli kunye nentshukumo yayo nje kuphela kwixesha elizayo, kodwa ekuhambeni kwexesha. Ukuthelekisa iingqikelelo ezininzi, sinokuthi xa imarike bafa 2016 iwela nakanye. Ngokwahlukileyo koko, le meko iya kuqhubekeka ukuphucula. Iingcali Siyaleza ukuqala isuka kwizinga elisezantsi $ 68 ngoJanuwari ubala ezona $ 105 ngoDisemba. Ngowe-2017, le meko akayi kutshintsha. NgoMatshi, u-Epreli noMeyi ukuze lincitshiswe ukuba eerandi 63 umphanda, kunye nokwehlisa ukuya eerandi 102 ngoJuni.

Uqikelelo kutshanje yi-Ofisi yoMphathiswa woPhuhliso lwezoQoqosho of Russia

I-Ofisi yoMphathiswa woPhuhliso lwezoQoqosho of Russia imiselwe ukuba ukwehla kwamaxabiso e-oli ngo-2016 nge-10%. Uqikelelo ezinzima kumela ixabiso $ 50 ekupheleni kuka-2015. ukubuyiselwa olunzulu uluhlu ixabiso ekupheleni ihlobo 2014 kulindeleke ngo-2018, kodwa hayi ngaphambili. Uxwebhu Ulwazi yanikezelwa eluntwini Aprili 10, 2015, kunye paneer lutshintsho kunye yeyala maxesha, ukuziqhelanisa kwimeko kwixesha elizayo. Isalathiso apho ixabiso oli uya kuhamba, uqoqosho-iklasi hlabathi abeke uphawu nangaliphi na ixesha, ngakumbi xa uthathe ingqalelo thina nokunikezelwa Izabelo orhwebo lwe-oyile kumazwe ngamazwe. Anamathele kwenye izimvo epapashwe ngokusemthethweni akukho kuyimfuneko, kuba iziganeko ukuze kwenzeka kweli hlabathi, iya alungise imeko ngomdla. ezinkulu kwiinkampani ze-oyile behlabathi ezifana "Gazprom", neoli angabi nako ukuthumela kwicala elifanelekileyo. Kuhleli kuphela ukulandela iziganeko ehlabathini. Ukuthatha kwabo ingqalelo, unako ukuba ngomlinganiselo othile achaze iya kuyilwa njani ezivela ioli.