Iran: Oil kunye noqoqosho

Izigqibo ezenziwa Iran kwi emva wokutyikitywa kwesivumelwano senyukliya kuya kuquka ngokutsha nkqubo US nje kuphela kweli lizwe kodwa kummandla lo wonke.

Bulala iintaka ezimbini ngelitye elinye

qhinga Iran ithe ingqalelo ukulingana phakathi:

• iinjongo zangaphakathi ukukhula kwezoqoqosho okuzinzileyo kunye sikhokelo somgaqo preservation;
• iinjongo lwangaphandle nokugcina indawo entle zommandla zeqhinga.

Ukuba kokuba ezi njongo zafezekiswa ngenxa ingeniso evela kwintengiso lwamandla nenzondelelo yonqulo, kodwa namhlanje, xa kwinkolelo yokuba Iran aya kulikhukulisa ihlabathi ioli, akukhange kwenzeke, impixano phakathi kwezi njongo kuya kuba kunqandwa. ingqwalasela enkulu Islamic Republic ekukhuleni lwangaphakathi ekuhambeni kwexesha kuthathelwa ingqalelo izithintelo entsha yezoqoqosho, nangona okukunyusa kwezohlwayo, ukomeleza indawo loqoqosho lwesizwe ngendlela eya kuba ehambelana kunye indlela ejoliswe intsebenziswano kunokuba ngxabano kuMbindi Mpuma.

Ukuhlukunyezwa ubuhle lwengingqi, kwelinye icala, kuza kuba kuzisola, njengoko oko kuya kubangela ukusetyenziswa ngobuchule kwezibonelelo. Le meko, ukongeza nzulu iyantlukwano zopolitiko zangaphakathi Iran, kufuna nokuhlaziywa enkulu-qhinga abadlali yengingqi kwakunye nomgaqo-nkqubo United States. Action, eliqhubela ilizwe ukomeleza amathuba kwezoqoqosho ukukhula, kunokuba ekufuneni sethubeni exabiso, kuMbindi Mpuma, kuya kuba luncedo ngakumbi uninzi Iran, nokuba ukuphumeza uzinzo kule ngingqi.

emva lweMelika

uqoqosho Iran kaThixo enze ukhetho. Notshintsho kwi meko neoli jikelele nethemba ezizwe nezizwana kuya kufuneka senze ukhetho olunzima. Kwesiqalekiso kwezohlwayo emva kokusayina isivumelwano enyukliya anakho ukwandisa yokurhaxwa. Amanyathelo athathiweyo kule minyaka imbalwa idlulileyo, ziye zanceda ukunqanda ukunyuka kwamaxabiso, ukunciphisa iinkxaso kunye ukufezekisa uzinzo kunye neqondo lotshintshiselwano kunye nokukhula.

Noko ke, uqoqosho ihlala ithambile. Intswela-ngqesho, ingakumbi abantu abaselula, uhlala kwinqanaba eliphezulu. Namathemba nyaka khangela ngcono ekukhanyeni buthathaka izithintelo zemali emva kokukhutshwa neemali zangaphandle enkulu, imveliso oyile banda, kwakunye nokuzithemba ezikhula kwimarike, nto leyo ekhokelela ekubeni ukwanda-mali. Imeko yezimali zeli lizwe kusenokwenzeka ukuba komelezwa ukuba namanyathelo acetywayo ukunyusa ingeniso, kuquka ukunyuka VAT, ukupheliswa izaphulelo ezisemthethweni kuhlawulo lwerhafu kunye ntlanga mali ziya kuzalisekiswa, leyo, kudityaniswe imveliso aphezulu basekhaya ongenisa, unga nciphisa ngakumbi emali .

iimeko Ezingalunganga ejongene Iran: oli namhlanje liyancipha ixabiso. Oku sahlanganisa imfuneko yokuba ixesha elide kunye notyalo eninzi avuselele ephumayo kwinqanaba dosanktsionny ekuvelisweni imiphanda ngemini 4 million kunye kwanda kwemfuno yangaphakathi. Ngoxa ukwandisa imveliso oyile e Iran kunye notyalo ezinxulumene kunceda kwandisa GDP, amaxabiso asezantsi amazwe kusenokwenzeka ukuba buthathaka indawo lwangaphandle kunye nebhajethi. Nge amathuba abanqongopheleyo nasiphi na isivumelwano lebyi ukunqanda izinto abavelisi ezinkulu, ingeniso oyile kuba-30% ngaphantsi kwiminyaka 3-4 ezayo ngaphezu kuqikelelo lwemozulu kwi kwingcinga yokuba kukho recovery strong in 2016. Ukongeza, ukuqokelelela neemali zangaphandle, neza kusebenza airbag ngekamva elingenammiselo, ziyakungahoywa. Kulo mzekelo, akukho ndawo ukugcina imigaqo expansionary ukuphucula ukukhula. Ngenxa yoko, abadala umngcipheko engaphezulu ekuphuculeni ukufundiswa.

izithintelo

Kwangaxeshanye, uqoqosho Iran i-ebuhlungu ngenxa kwezithintelo olwenzekileyo kuqhubeka wamnyanzela ngumlomo wayo nokukhula. Amaxabiso ezibalulekileyo, kuquka amazinga exchange kunye namazinga enzala, iye kodwa wabuyela eqhelekileyo; ubunzima NPLs kwicandelo mali enkulu; kwicandelo labucala ujongene kweemfuno kunye nokufumaneka ngokwaneleyo ngetyala; ityala likarhulumente liye landa mali asahleli ephezulu. Izifundo lwecandelo likarhulumente ukulawula indima ebalulekileyo kwezoqoqosho kunye ukufikelela kwimali-mboleko yebhanki. ulawulo kwicandelo labucala kunye nokusingqongileyo yeshishini azanelisi non-transparent, etyekileyo utyalo-mali labucala. Ukuqiniswa kozinzo zengingqi, ngokunjalo ukungaqiniseki malunga nokuphunyezwa kwe isivumelwano yenyukliya ngakumbi kwandisa umngcipheko.

Izinto eziphambili ngokubaluleka: yangaphakathi nxamnye zemimandla

Ngengqiqo ebanzi, Iran ufuna ekukhawuleziseni ukukhula koqoqosho ngaphakathi kwesakhelo somgaqo-nkqubo okhoyo, lo gama eqinisa isikhundla qhinga yasekuhlaleni. Elite bezopolotiko belizwe, Noko ke, yahlulwe ngamaqela amabini. Omnye wabo limelwe reformists kunye norhulumente technocratic kaMongameli Rouhani, timhaka ukukhula koqoqosho. Ngenxa yoko, ithambekele ngakumbi ukuba bafune imali eseleyo olusisicwangciso sommandla kunye nentsebenziswano kufutshane nayo imikhosi ngaphandle ngenxa yenkqubo yayo kwezoqoqosho. Ukuba urhulumente wagqiba ukwenza yinkululeko umnotho iinguqulelo ezibanzi ne-, kwakunye nokunciphisa indima kwicandelo likarhulumente kakuhle, kwi uphuhliso lwangaphakathi khosi kusenokwenzeka ukuba mikhulu emagemeni abo.

Umkhosi yesibini imelwe lwalugqugqisile abefundisi alawula nzima-line kunye Islamic Revolutionary Guards lweSizwe (IRGC), ngubani ukhetha ukugcina isakhiwo imaxongo yezoqoqosho, njengoko baphethe isabelo esikhulu kuqoqosho.

Babebambelele nxamnye Abahlaziyi

Ukuba izibonelelo ezongezelelweyo zithunyelwa kumaqumrhu kwicandelo likarhulumente, kwakunye ngokwengqiqo ebanzi IRGC kunye nabefundisi, kwisakhiwo lomgadi uqoqosho, izinga lokukhula Ziza kumana zisihla zinyuka emva umbuku lokuqala. Ezi imikhosi baligcine isabelo sawo ezingundoqo kuqoqosho lwesizwe kunye nefuthe layo etyhulu kumgaqo-Iran, ngaloo ndlela ekhokelela nkqubo bazibeke zemimandla kunye zangaphandle oko kusenziwa ngokudlela indlala kuphuhliso loqoqosho lwasekhaya. Esi sikhundla luya kukhokelela kozinzo ngakumbi kummandla ngaphandle ukunyusa ntle lizwe.

Kubalulekile ukuba uqaphele ukuba akucaci nokuba ulawulo lwangoku Rouhani, ebize igunya ngenjongo Lokuyekelela uqoqosho, umthamo owaneleyo ukuba enze iinguqulelo ezinkulu eziyimfuneko. Zihlanjiwe kulonyulo kutshanje, kodwa senze izinto ngamandla zondele kwaye hardliners. Nangona uye waphumelela kwiinkalo:

• Ukuzinziswa zemali,
• ukunciphisa ezinye mali,
• emali.

Kodwa umongameli kunzima ngenkqubo unikezelo. Kuba amagunya kubalulekile ukuba isithuba lokukhuthaza, nto leyo eza kunika inkxaso yoluntu zokuqhubekeka iinguqulelo. ukukhuthazwa International kunye mandla kubaluleka kakhulu.

Iran, amafutha kunye nezopolitiko

Kule meko zangoku, abasemagunyeni babufeze iindlela ezintathu ezibanzi:

1) Ukugcina imeko.

2) Ukuphunyezwa iinguqu olubanzi esisiso.

3) Ukufeza ngcathu ngokutsha cala kwezopolitiko.

Umba wesithathu uya lula ezinye izithintelo utyalo-mali kwicandelo labucala kunye nokudityaniswa yezemali kwimeko apho Iran uthengisa ioli kwi isivuno ephantsi, kodwa uya shiya isakhiwo lwezoqoqosho nopolitiko lonke ingatshintshanga.

Ukugcina imeko iya kuvelisa yokwanda ekukhuleni ukuya 4-4.5% ngo-2016-2017. ukusuka phantse zero ngo-2015-2016, xa izibonelelo ezongezelelweyo kusetyenziselwa ukuzinciphisa intsilelo, intlawulo ukuzinikela ezibalaseleyo kunye bekusungulwa iiprojekthi emsebenzini kwicandelo likarhulumente. Nangona kunjalo, phantsi kweemeko apho isixa oyile lifinyele, ukunyuka kade kwixesha elifutshane neliphakathi ukuya kwinqanaba apho kuya kwandisa ubukhulu ngqesho. imali rhoqo lwangaphakathi amandla ezopolitiko izimali ukuze kuxhamle iinjongo olusisicwangciso sommandla kwi ngokuxhaphaza lwangaphakathi kwezoqoqosho, yaye oku kuya kuba neziphumo ezibi kakhulu ekukhuleni.

Le nkqubo yotshintsho

Ngokutsho ngobuwena sesibini iinguqu ezinkulu-isikali, yinkululeko uqoqosho kunye nasekuqaleni nokulungiswa kwezithintelo zolwakhiwo kuza kukhokelela ekubeni ukukhula okuzinzileyo, nkqu ingeniso kunokuba bekulindelwe ephantsi-evela kwintengiso amandla, kunye ukunyuka kakhulu kwixesha eliphakathi nexesha elide. sophuhliso sesizwe enjalo iza kuqinisa isakhono yolawulo lomngcipheko abajongene yi Iran. Oyile baba atshiphu, yaye ixabiso layo - ngaphantsi izinzile. Impumelelo yesi sicwangciso iza kuxhomekeka a shift esikalini lwangaphakathi kwezopolitiko ngamandla avela abaxhasi umyalelo uqoqosho lwecandelo loluntu ukuya zabelo zemarike ebomini. Amava abonisa ukuba sesichengeni elide ukuya emarikeni, ngokwakho, inceda ukudala shift kuyimfuneko.

Imeko yesithathu, nangona ngokwezopolitiko etshabalalisayo ubuncinane, ngokukhawuleza ndiye yokuqala ukhetho. Amanyathelo okujongana nemiba yezopolitiko engalunganga ezifana lwabiwo ukudityaniswa kwiimeko esezantsi ingeniso kunye buthathaka ngezithintelo umsebenzi kwicandelo labucala ukuze ukubazolisa ukunganeliseki yemeko yoqoqosho lwasekhaya okwexeshana. Ukungaqiniseki kunye nokhuphiswano nokwanda igunya kwezopolitiko, nto leyo eza kuchaphazela ukwabiwa lungeniselo yeoli, aya kuba sengozini.

Iran: oyile kunye nabatyali amazwe

Ukuba Iran uza kuyeka kwinguqulelo yokuqala ye-nkqubo, i-US kuya kufuneka ukuba amnike umyalezo ngokucacileyo ukuba uza kunikwa ndlongo zengingqi nokumelana robust ukusuka kwi US kunye mmandla. Ukongeza, ukuba abadlali enkulu iya kunyanzeleka ngaphandle utyalo-mali ngqo kwicandelo ioli lizwe, oko kunceda ukuqinisekisa abasemagunyeni ukutshintsha isicwangciso yaso eyaneleyo ngaphezulu ngokunxulumene iingxaki zoqoqosho zasekhaya kunye nokugcina inkqubo elungeleleneyo amazwe.

Ukuze kukhuthazwe Iran ukuya uhlobo yesibini, i-United States kunye nemibutho yamazwe ngamazwe kufuneka ukuxhasa indlela enjalo. Intsebenziswano kunye namanye amazwe ioli-uku rhweba angabamelwane iya kubonelela ixabiso ihlabathi ezinzileyo kunye esengqiqweni neoli, ukuba ukubuyisela kokuxhomekeka yemveli, ukunceda ukuthumela Islamic Republic ukuqhuba le nkqubo welizwe langaphandle yenqila intsebenziswano kunye nentsebenziswano. Luyanda ukuzimela ne kwimarike yehlabathi kwaye kwandiswe ekungeneni kwemali eyinkunzi amazwe liya komeleza Iran balandele inkqubo kangako impikiswano kumgangatho wengingqi, ukuba negalelo uzinzo mmandla.

Kwimeko uhlobo yesithathu kwababandakanyekayo kwaye lwehlabathi kufuneka athathe amanyathelo lityhale urhulumente kwisigxina olusebenzayo ngakumbi kwezopolitiko. Ingakumbi, le buthathaka imiqathango zorhwebo kunye nentsebenziswano mali ayikho kwicandelo oyile inokuba ngenxa ngenguqu kumgaqo-nkqubo yangaphakathi. Enye indlela xi ku Iran - ukukhenkcisa abenzi ezinkulu oyile ukuxhasa amaxabiso - kungaba kukho inkuthazo utshintsho nkqubo ngqindilili.

ukukhetha ilungelo

Bonke abadlali inxaxheba zendalo yengingqi, banomdla, ukutyhalela Iran kukhetho imeko yesibini kunye nokuziphatha-nkqubo efanelekileyo yezoqoqosho guqula zezakhiwo. Lunatyiswe kwezigqibo kunye nokwandisa indima yemarike kulwabiwo lwezibonelelo, kunye nokuhla indima kwicandelo likarhulumente, zibaluleke kakhulu. La manyathelo aya kuba negalelo ekukhuleni, ukwandisa amathuba emisebenzi, kwakunye nenkxaso kumdibaniso Iran ukuya kuqoqosho lwengingqi kunye nehlabathi. Oku kuza kwandisa amandla inxalenye eziphakathi malunga yoluntu unyule Rouhani ngo-2013 waza waphumelela unyulo zakutshanje zepalamente.

Amaqabane eziphambili orhwebo eUnited States inkxaso abatyali-ngamazwe kunye namaziko amazwe ikhredithi, singakwazi ukudlala kule nkqubo indima ebalulekileyo. Nangona imikhosi zangaphakathi ikulawule iingxoxo phezu asezantsi kunokuba kulindelwe, ingqalelo ingeniso ioli, imikhosi yangaphandle nefuthe ulwalathiso kulwabiwo lwezibonelelo kwaye bancede urhulumente ukuphumeza injongo ezimbini.

Indawo apho imfuneko utyalo-mali lwangaphandle ukuqhubeka Iran - imisebenzi oyile kunye nophuhliso kwithekhinoloji kwamanye amacandelo afunekayo ukuhlangabezana ukunqaba kwemisebenzi abantu abatsha abafunde ngakumbi. Xa umdla zabatyali-mali bangaphandle bagcine i nkqubo kwimarike efanelekileyo, ngokubambisana ne-mali bengingqi, ngaphantsi umthwalo ummiselo ngokugqithiseleyo kunye nolawulo.

ukubambisana international

amaziko ezoqoqosho kunye nemali kunye namazwe amakhulu umtyali urhulumente kungadlala indima ebalulekileyo kwinkqubo yotshintsho. Kumaqela anjenge IMF kunye neBhanki yeHlabathi, unako kwaye kumele ukuba icebise abasemagunyeni Iranian kwi inguqu eziyimfuneko yezopolitiko. isikhundla sabo sifumane nempembelelo ebalulekileyo entle ekwenzeni izigqibo zabucala utyalo-mali. ubulungu Accelerated kwi WTO, kwakunye ukufikelela kwiimarike zehlabathi ziya kugqiba umjikelo ka yezoqoqosho lenkululeko nomanyano. line Strong ukutshintsha imali olusisicwangciso sommandla uya kufuna indlela ende ukuphembelela izigqibo malunga ulwabiwo lwezibonelelo kunye nokutshintsha izinto eziphambili ekubeni ukukhula ekhaya.

Kwinqanaba lasekuhlaleni kumdla Iran kuquka intsebenziswano kunye nabanye kubavelisi ukuze ukuzinzisa le meko orhwebo lwe-oyile. Kuhle Futshane nkqubo nolungelelaniso kunye nabavelisi amandla engundoqo kwi-Gulf akayi kuphela ukunceda ukuphucula amathuba kwezoqoqosho Iran, kodwa ukunciphisa impixano kule ngingqi. Amava sokubambisana sesikweni kunye Saudi Arabia kunye nabanye abavelisi enkulu nkqubo oyile lwengingqi kwi-1990 ngumzekelo omhle ukuyilandela.