Xa dollar iwela? Indlela ithuba lokuyihlolisisa le meko kwi zemali uze uqonde: i dollar uya kuwa okanye bavuke?

US dollar ngokuchasene engange iyahlozinga kakhulu kwiminyaka yakutshanje emva kwentlekele ka-2008-2009. US imali iye yawa ixabiso kakhulu. Ngo-2013 kunye nasekuqaleni 2014 - indlela evuthwe kwakhona. iingcali Market bakholelwa ukuba meko, kwakunye impendulo umbuzo wokuba ingaba dollar ziya kuwa, iphenjelelwa ezahlukeneyo izinto, zezoqoqosho kunye nezopolitiko.

Ixabiso oli

Ngokutsho kwimboniselo enye, idola ngokuchasene engange ngo-2014, kuya kwahluka kakhulu. Ukwanda elibukhali kwi US lwemali kufuneka ikhatshwe ukunciphisa zithuba yase Russian. Le imali engange, ngokutsho kwiingcali, kuxhomekeke kakhulu kumaxabiso e-oyile. I aphezulu oko kukuthi, i-dollar ngokuncipha. Ukuba ixabiso le-oyile iwela, urhulumente IsiRashiya ukuya ziyayihlawula kwamanzi kuhlahlo lwabiwo-mali, kuya kulwenza lungabi naxabiso olo engange, ukunceda ukuthunyelwa 'igolide abamnyama "kwakhona.

Nakuba kunjalo, iinkcukacha koqoqosho evela US kunye EU nendlela ngokuthe ngcembe ngaphandle kukudodobala kwezoqoqosho elide, bathi amaxabiso oyile uya kuhlala kwinqanaba eliphezulu (ngeenxa $ 100 umphanda). Le imali engange ngaloo ngakumbi kuqoqosho lwaseNtshona ukumelana. Ngowe-2014, xa amaxabiso oyile kakhulu ukuthatha izifundo sifadalala, imali Russian emveni koku isalamane zitshiphu kwi-US. Ukuba ngokuchasene - oko kuya kufuneka nje ukuba alinde de dollar ziya kuwa.

Ruble - ongekho buthathaka

Kukho imbono yokuba imali engange Russian, bebambisene bonke, kuba akukho lwemali buthathaka. Ngokutsho koqikelelo lwabemi na abaxhasi le kwithesisi, inqaku ibhanki kazwelonke kuye kwaqinisa ilizwe lethu iminyaka eli-10 edlulileyo nge-60% ngokwalo yokwenene. Ukuba, umzekelo, abemi yonke le minyaka, igcinwe ukulondoloza engange, oyise ngokucacileyo. Kwangaxeshanye, ngathi ekomelezeni lwemali Russian, abezoqoqosho ukukholwa, kungekudala emva koko, iya azinalo. Nangona umthamo omkhulu ezithunyelwa ngaphandle amafutha, ekungeneni net imali (ngohlobo umvuzo, iinguqulelo) liphantsi. Uqoqosho Russian, ngaloo ndlela, unokufumana kule ngxaki, kwaye Ruble, ngenxa yoko, i-dollar uya kubuya "ubabalo" kwangaphambili.

Sekunjalo, "ngamaplanga"

Ezinye iingcali zikholelwa ukuba imali engange - lwemali, apho kunzima nentembelo: baziphathe njani dollar uya kuwa okanye kuvuka inowuthi ibhanki Russian - ukuqikelela nzima. Kwanele ukuba ukukhumbula 90, xa imali engange maxa mzuzu esibi musani ukuma i "iphepha" kwi nantoni na. izinto ezininzi kakhulu ngokwemveli azinampembelelo ngeranti Russian: kuba ixabiso le oli, umgaqo-nkqubo we-Central Bank ngokunxulumene kwindlela yogcino, kukho ukuziphatha CB zabucala.

Ingxelo ka-2014 Unyaka akuthethi wayesazi ukuba imali engange leyo devalued - ikakhulu ngenxa eRashiya wangena WTO, kangangokuba isabelo kwemveliso nivuke, kwaye imveliso yasekhaya - lifinyele. Kukho zemali: ekupheleni kuka-2013 yi-euro yafikelela engange-45, lo gama omnye ngo-2012, ngomlinganiselo ofanayo yayigqalwa engenakwenzeka. Ngoko ke asikwazi kulawula ngaphandle ukunyusa izinga kwiiyunithi 50 lwemali Russian for yaseYurophu enye. Ngenxa yoko, uqoqosho US kwiminyaka yakutshanje, kukho iimpawu sinjalo, kunye neengcali ngokunxulumene dollar banethemba ngaphezulu.

Kwenza akukho mqondo ukucacisa

Ngaphandle kokuba iingcali zorhwebo kuhlala silahle malunga engange, akukho namnye ngokwenene ngeke ikucebise ukutyala kwi US lwemali njengohlobo lokonga. Kukho kwinguqulo abemi ngokuzenzela woyikise amaphepha ezimenyiweyo abezoqoqosho, ngokunjalo ubushushu amarhe ezahlukeneyo nokuhleba ngenjongo eyodwa - ukuze bandiqumbise ukuthenga abemi Russian njengoko umqulu kunokwenzeka ezinkulu US lwemali. Ezi "iinkosi" engamaphepha - hayi beyifuna, kunye iiBhanki ezingoovimba. Ngabo isigqibo xa dollar uyawa, yaye xa ikhula.

Kukho ingongoma umdla lwembono, ukuba baseRashiya uya kukwazi ukuba nayiphi na impembelelo kwi Central yethu Bank, nto leyo uyasebenza, kunoko, ukugcina umdla oligarchs, kungekhona abantu, "izinambuzane" ukuze kuhla engange-30 ekupheleni kuka-2014. Kwakhona, ezinye iingcali igxininisa - nokuba kukho ukwehla elibukhali kwiimeko zoqoqosho, ukulahlwa karhulumente kufuneka i-Reserve Fund, apho 'stock' malunga 5 triliyoni engange. Oko kwanele ukuba zanele intsilelo mali enkulu kakhulu.

ukuba nethemba

Ngokutsho kokwakhelwa inani leengcali ngexesha borhwebo currency nyanga iphelileyo waphawula zigaba, xa Central Bank of Russia akuthethi ukuqhuba naluphi na ungenelelo exchange angaphandle. Ikhosi yase kazwelonke, ngoko, bawela babizwa ngokuba 'inyoba cala "xa Central Bank Akukhathaliseki: i dollar uya kuvuka okanye bawe. "Ibhaskiti Bi-currency" ixabiso kule ngongoma ayidluli ukubaluleka ukuba Central Bank of ixabiso engange 41. Kukho iimeko ezisisiseko kwaye kwerandi yokuziphatha ngakumbi lwemali Russian nxamnye dollar kanye euro.

Ngokuphathelele lokuqala - kukho ukwanda kakhulu balance yorhwebo weRashiya. Oku kubangelwa ubukhulu becala kwimeko engcono yemali yamazwe kwindawo euro, ezo amaqabane yezoqoqosho ephambili kwilizwe lethu. I ECB ukuqikelela ukuba GDP le ngingqi ukuze akhule nge-1.1% ekupheleni kuka-2014. Ngenxa yoko, oku kungabangela ukwanda kwemfuno ebangwayo yemithombo yobutyebi amafutha of Russia, kwakunye nokwanda amanani abo. Ukongeza, ukuba buthathaka engange nxamnye dollar kanye euro, owenzeka ngo-2014, enyanisweni, ukuphucula ibhalansi yorhwebo yelizwe wabulela endaweni ukungenisa esebenzayo. Ngoko yokuba ishishini Russian ehleli @UnathiKondile, xa dollar uyawa.

Amanani asuka kwi-State

Russian Ministry of loPhuhliso loQoqosho ukuqikelela ukuba imali engange (ngokwemimiselo olusebenza ngokwenene) ngo-2014 ziya buthathaka nge 7.4% (ngelixa abanye ixesha elidlulileyo ukunciphisa ukubala inani lase 1.5%). Eli nani kwaziswa kwinqanaba zolungiselelo liphezulu. Ngo-2015, imali Russian nga uPhuhliso loQoqosho akholelwa womelezwa 0.2% ngo-2016 - 1.1%, kwaye ngaphezulu kancinane ngo-2017 - 0.1%. Le imali engange nxamnye dollar ngo-2014, ngokutsho arhente, kwi-avareji yonyaka iiyunithi 36.3 (xa kuthelekiswa 33,9 kwi ekubaleni elidlulileyo). Ngowe-2015, i "inkunzi", kulindeleke ukuba axabise 38,8 yamaphepha Russian, ngo-2016 phantse efanayo - 38.7, ngo-2017, kakhulu, ngaphandle naluphi na utshintsho - 38.5.

Ministry of Economic Development ikholelwa ukuba ngexabiso eliyi-avareji ye Umphanda oyile engahluzwanga Urals amaphenyane liza kunyuka eerandi ukuya 104, yaye ngo-2015-2016. uwela kwiiyunithi 100 US lwemali. Ngowe-2017, i "igolide black", ngokutsho arhente kuthelekelelwa ukuba kuwa ngexabiso ukuya kutsho eerandi 98 umphanda. Urhulumente ayisiyiyo bayazibuza apho dollar aya kuwa ngexabiso.

Amanani asuka abahlaziyi

Ngokutsho lentelekelelo yangoku yale bank investment iUBS, uqoqosho Russian ngo-2014 liya kukhula nge% 1.5 kuphela (kanti izibalo ezidlulileyo kwakukhona lomzobo we-2.5%), ngo-2015 - 2% (ngaphambili kulindeleke 2 , 8%). Ngenxa kufuneka sihlolwe yombono imeko yemali kwilizwe lethu, abahlalutyi silindele ukuba iziko lamatyala, ukuba "imali ezimbini" engobozini, nto leyo okhankanywe ngentla, kuya kuba kuhle 44.2 engange ekupheleni kuka-2014 (ngaphambili ngokuba ngemfano iiyunithi 40,7 lwemali Russian).

Ngokuphathelele ulwalamano ngokokuma se dollar kanye euro, ekupheleni kuka-2014, abahlalutyi iUBS ulindele ukuba 1 iyunithi lwemali American liya kuxabisa 1.25 yamaphepha zaseYurophu. Oku kuphantse liyahambelana kwi engange (37.6 dollar ngalinye ngo Disemba 2014). Ngo-2015 i-euro ngokuchasene bakholwe iUBS «buck", bawe ixabiso ukuya kwinqanaba 1.20. umhlaziyi Ibhanki balindele ukuba ibhanki Russian central akayi kungenelela ngorhwebo lwemali, kodwa musa wayesazi ukuba umgaqo wolawulo-mali ye-Central Bank iya kuba ilukhuni. Kodwa uqikelelo lwabo phantse akukho ndawo theses kuphuhliso loqoqosho lwethu xa dollar uyawa.

factor Ukrainian

Iingcali Russian musa indiva imeko Ukraine kunye dollar US ngokunxulumene imo lwemali lesizwe kwilizwe elingummelwane - lwemali kazwelonke. I-International Monetary Fund ubona izinga olufanelekileyo leeyunithi 10.5-11 yamanqaku zebhanki i "buck". Kukho kwakhona isimo ophambene apho dollar phezulu ukuya 12-13 hryvnia. Phakathi izizathu - ukunyuka kwamaxabiso gas Ukraine, zisiba ubambiswano yorhwebo ne-Russia, leyo isekude lomncono yelizwe iintlawulo intsilelo kwaye kungakhokelela ekubeni ukwehla kule hryvnia. into ebalulekileyo nkqubo zeIMF.

Ukuba ingxowa-mali iya kunika Ukraine-mboleko, imali yesizwe yelizwe yokulwa imfazwe ngokuchasene idola kunokulomeleza. -umlenze evela IMF iyakwazi ukuba ibe ngumqondiso ocacileyo kubatyali avela kwamanye amazwe kunye noosomashishini. Omnye nezinye iimpawu ezintle - sengqondo iinkokheli Russia kunye United States isandla nangakumbi ekusonjululweni le meko kweli lizwe ngomzila ozakuzo. Kodwa umdlalo yezopolitiko - inkqubo sinzima ukwazi ngokuqinisekileyo ukuba dollar baya kuwela Ukraine.

Ingxelo uyiqaphele

Iingcali zithi ukuze siqonde indlela dollar izakuziphatha ngokusekelwe "ikhondo elizayo", kulula - ngenxa yokuba i Central Bank of Russia ipapasha okunanisa suku ligosa ngomso. Akukho nzima ukwenza iingqikelelo ixesha elide baze bathi ukuze uqinisekise ngakumbi xa idola okanye euro ziya kuwa, akakwazi. ngerandi dollar US ngokunxulumene eRashiya buxhomekeke kakhulu amaqela amabini zinto. Okokuqala, oko kukuthi, njengokuba enjalo, inqaba engange. Kuxhomekeke meko kuqoqosho Russian kunye neenkqubo zopolitiko. Okwesibini - dollar ithelekiswa neemali zamanye amazwe ehlabathini (ingakumbi euro), ukuqikelela amaxabiso ezo kulula. Ngoko ke, abahlalutyi acetyiswa abadlali market sithembele kakhulu kuqikelelo ixesha elide malunga nokuziphatha yase America.